Shota Imanaga takes the ball for Chicago in the series finale at Wrigley, looking to give the Cubs a rubber-game victory after splitting the first two contests. Imanaga's 4.17 ERA and 1.12 WHIP represent solid production, but his velocity has been trending slightly downward in recent starts — averaging just 85-86 mph on his fastball, well below typical for the left-hander. His arsenal of splitters and sweepers remains his primary weapon, and against a Minnesota lineup missing Byron Buxton (right hip strain), he should find favorable matchups throughout. Zebby Matthews opposes for Minnesota, armed with mid-90s heat and a six-pitch mix. His 4.57 ERA and 1.22 WHIP suggest a pitcher who can generate strikeouts but also yields damage when location falters. The Cubs' lineup, though thinned by Matt Shaw's absence (left-hand sprain), still presents left-handed threats like Michael Conforto who can do damage against right-handed starters. Wrigley's conditions — clear sky, 78 degrees, northeast wind at 8 mph blowing in slightly — keep this more of a pitcher-friendly afternoon. Chicago's bullpen is the clear edge here. Despite a staggering nine pitchers on the injured list, the Cubs' active relievers anchored by Thornton (2.48 ERA) and Webb (3.05 ERA) are among the better late-inning units in the NL. Minnesota's bullpen has been taxed by a negative run differential season-long. The Cubs won Game 1 of this series 6-2 and split with a 5-2 loss in Game 2 — home-field advantage and the superior closer corps tip this finale to Chicago.

Scoring Dynamics

Early (1-3) 1R Both starters settle in early, low traffic

Middle (4-6) 4R Cubs leverage platoon matchups vs Matthews

Late (7-9) 3R Bullpen factors in; Cubs pen holds lead

Matchup Analysis

Cubs

Strong home record 28-20

Imanaga elite command/movement

Deep reliable bullpen

Depleted rotation depth (9 arms IL)

Thin lineup data available

Twins

Matthews mid-90s velocity upside

7-3 last ten games form

Brooks Lee power threat

Negative run differential overall

Buxton out, lineup depleted

Risk Factors

Cubs' massive pitching IL list

Matthews' velocity could overpower lineup

Key Matchups

Brooks Lee vs Shota Imanaga pitcher Imanaga's splitter neutralizes right-handed power hitters effectively

Nico Hoerner vs Zebby Matthews batter Hoerner's contact ability exploits Matthews' walk tendencies

Michael Conforto vs Zebby Matthews batter Left-handed hitter with HR pop vs. righty with elevated ERA

Statistical Edges

First to Score Cubs 55%

Strikeouts 15 12-18

Total Runs 8 6-11

Game Preview

Wrigley Field buzzes under a clear July sky as Imanaga toes the rubber for the deciding game of this weekend interleague set. The first two frames pass quietly — Imanaga's splitter draws weak contact, while Matthews' 95-mph heater keeps Chicago's leadoff hitters honest. The Cubs break through in the second inning when Nico Hoerner works a walk and eventually scores on a Michael Conforto base hit to right-center, giving Chicago an early foothold. Minnesota answers in the third when Brooks Lee — the Twins' most dangerous bat in Buxton's absence — fights off a sweeper and drives a double to left, coming home on a Ryan Kreidler single. The game is tied entering the fourth, but the Cubs flex their lineup depth as Hoerner and Conforto string together back-to-back hits, plating two runs and pushing Chicago's advantage to 3-1. Matthews labors through the fifth, surrendering another Minnesota run on a Luke Keaschall RBI groundout, but Chicago adds an insurance run off the Twins bullpen in the sixth. Imanaga works six solid innings before handing the ball to Chicago's bullpen. Thornton and Webb navigate the Twins' middle-order threats in the seventh and eighth despite a Twins rally tally in the seventh. The Cubs' pen slams the door in the ninth, clinching a 5-3 series victory at Wrigley and sending the home crowd home satisfied in the afternoon sunshine.

Cubs hold clear home advantage, superior bullpen, and momentum from yesterday's 6-2 win. Imanaga vs. a Buxton-less Twins lineup favors Chicago, though Matthews' velocity keeps Minnesota competitive. Moderate confidence at 61.

Probable Pitchers

Minnesota Twins — Roster

Player	Pos	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG
Austin Martin	LF	.245	2	20	.356	.321
Alex Jackson	C	.309	1	4	.333	.418
Josh Bell	DH	.249	13	60	.307	.424
Royce Lewis	2B	.217	10	30	.292	.396
Tristan Gray	1B	.232	4	29	.271	.333
Alan Roden	RF	.211	0	3	.286	.211
Luke Keaschall	CF	.263	4	28	.352	.352
Brooks Lee	3B	.249	14	51	.307	.422
Ryan Kreidler	SS	.254	5	24	.318	.420

Chicago Cubs — Roster

Player	Pos	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG
Justin Dean	CF	.400	0	3	.571	.800
Michael Conforto	RF	.241	8	22	.327	.476
Michael Busch	1B	.244	12	52	.370	.403
Alex Bregman	3B	.239	10	43	.336	.362
Kevin Alcántara	LF	.222	0	3	.263	.222
Nico Hoerner	2B	.245	4	43	.314	.341
Pedro Ramírez	DH	.281	1	10	.329	.438
Carson Kelly	C	.269	6	33	.359	.392
Dansby Swanson	SS	.207	16	58	.287	.407

Scoring Plays

▼ 1

Alex Bregman homers (10) on a fly ball to left field. Seiya Suzuki scores.

0-2

▼ 2

Carson Kelly singles on a ground ball to center fielder Luke Keaschall. Pedro Ramírez scores.

0-3

▼ 3

Nico Hoerner triples (1) on a line drive to left fielder Austin Martin, deflected by center fielder Luke Keaschall. Michael Busch scores. Alex Bregman scores. Ian Happ scores.

0-6

▼ 3

Pedro Ramírez singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Luke Keaschall. Nico Hoerner scores.

0-7

▼ 4

Michael Busch singles on a ground ball to left fielder Austin Martin. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. Seiya Suzuki to 2nd.

0-8

▼ 4

Alex Bregman reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by third baseman Brooks Lee. Seiya Suzuki scores. Michael Busch to 2nd. Fielding error by third baseman Brooks Lee.

0-9

▼ 4

Nico Hoerner singles on a line drive to left fielder Austin Martin. Michael Busch scores.

0-10

▲ 8

Royce Lewis out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Austin Martin scores. Alex Jackson to 3rd.

1-10

Minnesota Twins — Batting

Player	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OPS
Austin MartinLF	4	1	1	0	0	1	.245	.677
Alex JacksonC	1	0	1	0	0	0	.309	.751
Josh BellDH	3	0	1	0	1	1	.249	.731
Royce Lewis2B	3	0	1	1	0	0	.217	.688
Tristan Gray1B	0	0	0	0	0	0	.232	.604
Alan RodenRF	2	0	0	0	0	0	.211	.497
Luke KeaschallCF	3	0	1	0	1	0	.263	.704
Brooks Lee3B	4	0	1	0	0	1	.249	.729
Ryan KreidlerSS	4	0	1	0	0	0	.254	.738
Totals	32	1	8	1	3	4

BATTING

2B: Lewis, R (12, Imanaga).

TB: Bell; Caratini; Jackson, A; Keaschall; Kreidler; Lee, B; Lewis, R 2; Martin.

RBI: Lewis, R (30).

Runners left in scoring position, 2 out: Lewis, R; Kreidler; Caratini 2.

SF: Lewis, R.

GIDP: Bell; Kreidler.

Team RISP: 0-for-4.

Team LOB: 8.

FIELDING

E: Lee, B (7, fielding).

DP: (Lewis, R-Kreidler-Caratini).

a-Grounded out for Clemens in the 7th.

Chicago Cubs — Batting

Player	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	HR	AVG	OPS
Justin DeanCF	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	.400	1.371
Michael ConfortoRF	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	.241	.803
Michael Busch1B	5	2	3	1	0	1	0	.244	.773
Alex Bregman3B	4	2	2	2	1	0	1	.239	.698
Kevin AlcántaraLF	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	.222	.485
Nico Hoerner2B	5	1	2	4	0	2	0	.245	.655
Pedro RamírezDH	4	1	2	1	0	0	0	.281	.767
Carson KellyC	3	0	1	1	1	0	0	.269	.751
Dansby SwansonSS	4	0	0	0	0	1	0	.207	.694
Totals	36	10	12	9	6	9	1

BATTING

2B: Suzuki (16, Matthews); Ramírez (5, Matthews); Crow-Armstrong (16, Matthews).

3B: Hoerner (1, Matthews).

HR: Bregman (10, 1st inning off Matthews, 1 on, 2 out).

TB: Bregman 5; Busch 3; Crow-Armstrong 2; Hoerner 4; Kelly, C; Ramírez 3; Suzuki 2.

RBI: Bregman 2 (43); Busch (52); Hoerner 4 (43); Kelly, C (33); Ramírez (10).

2-out RBI: Hoerner; Bregman 2.

Runners left in scoring position, 2 out: Swanson; Hoerner 2.

GIDP: Happ.

Team RISP: 7-for-13.

Team LOB: 8.

FIELDING

E: Suzuki (2, fielding).

DP: 2 (Swanson-Hoerner-Busch; Bregman-Hoerner-Busch).

a-Struck out for Suzuki in the 8th.

Minnesota Twins — Pitching

Pitcher	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA
Zebby Matthews(L, 4-7)	3.0	9	10	8	3	4	1	87-61	5.40
Travis Adams	3.0	1	0	0	1	2	0	45-26	5.53
Kody Funderburk	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	14-9	3.91
Woo-Suk Go	1.0	2	0	0	1	2	0	23-13	3.00

Chicago Cubs — Pitching

Pitcher	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC-ST	ERA
Shota Imanaga(W, 6-8)	7.0	6	0	0	1	4	99-63	3.91
Phil Maton	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	23-19	6.18
Drew Pomeranz	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	20-11	5.59

Game Info

Umpires: Home Plate: James Jean; First Base: Mark Wegner; Second Base: Bruce Dreckman; Third Base: Nate Tomlinson

Venue: Wrigley Field, Chicago

Weather: 78°F, Sunny

Wind: 7 mph, In From CF

Minnesota Twins — News

Twins lose Abel and Festa to season-ending injuries

Minnesota's rotation thins to Ryan (2.85 ERA), Bradley (3.85 ERA), and Ober (4.33 ERA) as top three options; Matthews (4.57 ERA, 0.33 xwOBA) now moves into regular rotation duty for a 49-50 team already -15 in run differential heading into a playoff-contention window.

Mick Abel

David Festa

Minnesota Twins

Twins Claim Jack Anderson Off Waivers From Red Sox

Anderson has pitched 8.0 IP with a 3.38 ERA and 0.372 xwOBA in three relief appearances for Boston—minimal upside for a MIN bullpen already allowing 480 runs (third-worst in AL Central).

Jack Anderson

Minnesota Twins

Boston Red Sox

Jeffers Returns From Hamate Fracture For Twins

Jeffers needed just five rehab games to return, arriving with a .389 xwOBA and .541 SLG across 37 games—elite offensive production that matters given the Twins sit 46-48 with a -17 run differential and are relying on a bullpen where Rogers posts a 5.61 ERA and Orze sits at 5.66.

Minnesota Twins

Twins Acquire Tommy Nance From Blue Jays

Nance (3.82 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 9.27 K/9) adds depth to MIN's bullpen, which has been unreliable—Rogers (5.61 ERA), Orze (5.66 ERA), and Gómez (3.59 ERA, 0.347 xwOBA) have all struggled. TOR moves a mid-tier reliever from a 44-49 team while MIN sits 46-48 needing late-inning stability.

Tommy Nance

Toronto Blue Jays

Minnesota Twins

Anthony Banda undergoes season-ending lat surgery

Banda (4.46 ERA, 8.65 K/9 in 39 G) was Minnesota's primary high-leverage reliever; his loss forces the Twins to lean heavier on Gómez (3.59 ERA, 38 G) while Rogers (5.61 ERA) continues to underperform in a bullpen that's already -14 in run differential.

Anthony Banda

Minnesota Twins

Chicago Cubs — News

Cubs Acquire Aaron Civale From Athletics

Civale arrives with a 5.42 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 15 starts—a marginal upgrade over Chicago's current fifth-starter options (Peterson 6.45 ERA, Rea 4.74 ERA). The Cubs' 54-43 record and +49 run differential suggest they're betting on stabilizing depth rather than acquiring a rotation anchor.

Aaron Civale

Athletics

Chicago Cubs

Cubs Re-Sign Jake Woodford To Minor League Deal

Woodford returns on a minors pact after posting a 7.46 ERA and 1.82 WHIP across 17 relief appearances—well below the Cubs' bullpen standards anchored by Thornton (2.48 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) and Webb (3.05 ERA).

Jake Woodford

Chicago Cubs

Aaron Bummer Opts Out Of Cubs Minor League Deal

Bummer's 7.63 ERA and 1.83 WHIP across 15.1 innings with Atlanta this season explains the Cubs' decision to release him after six minor league appearances; Chicago's bullpen remains anchored by Webb (3.05 ERA, 48 SO) and Thornton (2.48 ERA, 13 SO).

Aaron Bummer

Chicago Cubs

Trade Deadline Outlook: Chicago Cubs

Cubs sit 54-42 with a +52 run differential but face deadline decisions with rotation depth concerns—Peterson (6.45 ERA, 1.64 WHIP) and Rea (4.75 ERA) anchor a middle tier that lags behind Imanaga (4.17 ERA, 105 SO). A +52 run diff masks that Chicago is only 6-4 in their last 10 despite the recent win streak.

Chicago Cubs

Second Half Begins: NL Central Four Teams Reach 50+ Wins

Milwaukee (59-37, +126 run diff) leads a loaded division where Brewers, Cubs (54-42, +52), Cardinals (50-45, +6), and Pirates (50-47, +44) have all hit 50 wins—the deepest NL Central talent pool in 2026.

Pittsburgh Pirates