This matchup features two struggling starting pitchers in Chris Paddack (5.59 ERA) and Dustin May (6.98 ERA), setting up a potentially high-scoring affair at loanDepot park. Paddock has been particularly poor this season, going 0-3 while allowing over a run per inning pitched. His recent velocity has dipped to the mid-80s, making his fastball-heavy approach less effective. May brings better velocity but has been even less effective, posting a concerning 6.98 ERA despite his reputation as a power pitcher. The Cardinals' Jordan Walker presents the biggest offensive threat, leading his team with 8 home runs and showing excellent plate discipline. Miami counters with Xavier Edwards (.337 average) and Otto Lopez (.338), both having breakout seasons. However, the Marlins are significantly hampered by injuries to their outfield depth, with Christopher Morel, Esteury Ruiz, and Griffin Conine all on the IL. This forces Miami to rely on players like Austin Slater (.182) in key spots. The Cardinals' superior overall record (13-9 vs 11-12) and better run differential suggest more consistent offensive production throughout their lineup. While Miami has won the last two games in this series and boasts a strong 9-5 home record, their pitching disadvantage and injury concerns make them vulnerable. The weather conditions are ideal with clear skies and manageable winds, favoring offensive production. Both teams' bullpens will likely be tested early given the starting pitching struggles, but St. Louis appears better positioned to weather this type of game.

Scoring Dynamics

Early (1-3) 3R Both struggling pitchers vulnerable early

Middle (4-6) 4R Bullpens enter with moderate effectiveness

Late (7-9) 4R Cardinals offense proves clutch in final frames

Matchup Analysis

Marlins

Strong home record 9-5

Xavier Edwards hitting .337

Currently on 2-game win streak

Multiple IL outfielders

Chris Paddack's 5.59 ERA and 0-3 record

Cardinals

Jordan Walker leading with 8 HRs and 16 RBIs

Better overall record 13-9

Dustin May's higher strikeout potential

6.98 ERA from starting pitcher May

Coming off yesterday's 5-3 loss to Miami

Risk Factors

Both starters have ERAs over 5.50

Marlins missing multiple outfielders

Key Matchups

Jordan Walker vs Chris Paddack batter Walker's power vs struggling righty

Xavier Edwards vs Dustin May batter Hot hitter vs high ERA pitcher

Otto Lopez vs Dustin May batter Lopez's .338 average against hard thrower

Statistical Edges

First to Score Cardinals 58%

Strikeouts 12 10-15

Total Runs 11 9-13

Game Preview

The Cardinals strike first in the opening inning when Jordan Walker works a leadoff walk against Chris Paddack and scores on a JJ Wetherholt RBI single. Miami responds quickly in the second as Xavier Edwards doubles and Otto Lopez drives him home with a clutch two-out single, then Lopez scores on a wild pitch to give the Marlins a 2-1 lead. The fourth inning proves pivotal when Dustin May walks the leadoff hitter and allows a single before Victor Scott II clears the bases with a two-run double, putting St. Louis ahead 3-2. Miami ties it in the fourth on a solo homer from Edwards, his second of the season. The middle innings feature solid bullpen work from both sides until the seventh, when St. Louis manufactures a run through small ball - a walk, stolen base, and sacrifice fly. Miami answers in the eighth with a clutch RBI single from Lopez, knotting the game at 5-5. The ninth inning belongs to the Cardinals as they break through against Miami's closer. Walker leads off with a single, advances to third on a wild pitch and passed ball, then scores the go-ahead run on Wetherholt's sacrifice fly. An insurance run comes home when José Fermín doubles and scores on a fielder's choice, giving St. Louis a 7-5 victory and salvaging a series split.

The confidence level reflects the unpredictability of two struggling starters with ERAs over 5.50, but St. Louis' superior overall offensive depth and Miami's significant outfield injuries tip the scales toward the Cardinals despite the Marlins' strong home record.

예상 선발 투수

St. Louis Cardinals — 로스터

선수	포지션	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG
JJ Wetherholt	2B	.229	3	11	.377	.361
Iván Herrera	DH	.217	2	11	.383	.325
Alec Burleson	1B	.278	3	17	.359	.444
Jordan Walker	RF	.292	8	16	.357	.607
Nolan Gorman	3B	.203	3	15	.274	.324
Masyn Winn	SS	.257	1	9	.354	.400
Nathan Church	LF	.231	2	8	.281	.365
Pedro Pagés	C	.196	1	5	.255	.304
Victor Scott II	CF	.207	0	4	.266	.224

Miami Marlins — 로스터

선수	포지션	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG
Jakob Marsee	CF	.176	1	5	.303	.264
Kyle Stowers	RF	.300	0	0	.462	.400
Otto Lopez	SS	.318	3	11	.371	.523
Xavier Edwards	2B	.348	1	7	.431	.483
Liam Hicks	C	.324	4	21	.373	.527
Agustín Ramírez	DH	.212	2	11	.284	.353
Javier Sanoja	3B	.320	0	9	.370	.380
Heriberto Hernández	LF	.154	0	9	.290	.192
Connor Norby	1B	.247	2	7	.341	.397

득점 장면

▲ 1

Alec Burleson singles on a line drive to center fielder Jakob Marsee. JJ Wetherholt scores. Alec Burleson to 2nd.

1-0

▼ 1

Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Jakob Marsee homers (1) on a line drive to right field.

1-1

▲ 3

Alec Burleson reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by first baseman Connor Norby. JJ Wetherholt scores. Iván Herrera to 2nd.

2-1

▲ 4

Nathan Church homers (2) on a fly ball to right field. Masyn Winn scores.

4-1

▲ 5

Nolan Gorman singles on a line drive to left fielder Kyle Stowers. Alec Burleson scores.

5-1

▼ 8

Heriberto Hernández singles on a line drive to right fielder Jordan Walker. Xavier Edwards scores. Liam Hicks scores. Javier Sanoja to 3rd.

5-3

St. Louis Cardinals — 타격

선수	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	HR	AVG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt2B	4	2	1	0	1	2	0	.229	.738
Iván HerreraDH	5	0	2	0	0	2	0	.217	.708
Alec Burleson1B	4	1	2	2	0	1	0	.278	.803
Jordan WalkerRF	4	0	0	0	0	2	0	.292	.964
Nolan Gorman3B	4	0	1	1	0	2	0	.203	.598
Masyn WinnSS	4	1	2	0	0	0	0	.257	.754
Nathan ChurchLF	4	1	2	2	0	0	1	.231	.646
Pedro PagésC	4	0	0	0	0	2	0	.196	.559
Victor Scott IICF	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	.207	.490
합계	36	5	10	5	2	12	1

BATTING

2B: Wetherholt (2, Paddack); Burleson (6, Paddack); Winn (5, Paddack).

HR: Church (2, 4th inning off Paddack, 1 on, 0 out).

TB: Burleson 3; Church 5; Gorman; Herrera 2; Wetherholt 2; Winn 3.

RBI: Burleson 2 (17); Church 2 (8); Gorman (15).

2-out RBI: Gorman.

Runners left in scoring position, 2 out: Church 2; Pagés, P; Gorman 2.

Team RISP: 2-for-11.

Team LOB: 6.

BASERUNNING

SB: Church (3, 2nd base off Phillips/Hicks, L).

CS: Scott II (2, 2nd base by Phillips/Hicks, L).

FIELDING

E: Winn (1, throw).

Outfield assists: Walker, J (Marsee at 1st base).

Miami Marlins — 타격

선수	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	HR	AVG	OPS
Jakob MarseeCF	4	1	3	1	0	0	1	.176	.567
Kyle StowersRF	4	0	0	0	1	1	0	.300	.862
Otto LopezSS	5	0	0	0	0	1	0	.318	.894
Xavier Edwards2B	4	1	2	0	1	0	0	.348	.914
Liam HicksC	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	.324	.900
Agustín RamírezDH	4	0	0	0	0	2	0	.212	.637
Javier Sanoja3B	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	.320	.750
Heriberto HernándezLF	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	.154	.482
Connor Norby1B	4	0	1	0	0	2	0	.247	.738
합계	34	3	8	3	4	9	1

BATTING

HR: Marsee (1, 1st inning off May, 0 on, 0 out).

TB: Edwards, X 2; Hernández, H; Marsee 6; Norby; Pauley.

RBI: Hernández, H 2 (9); Marsee (5).

2-out RBI: Hernández, H 2.

Runners left in scoring position, 2 out: Stowers 2; Caissie; Lopez, O; Norby; Ramírez.

Team RISP: 1-for-10.

Team LOB: 10.

BASERUNNING

CS: Stowers (1, 2nd base by May/Pagés, P).

FIELDING

Outfield assists: Marsee (Herrera at 2nd base).

a-Lined out for Caissie in the 7th.

b-Hit by pitch for Pauley in the 7th.

St. Louis Cardinals — 투구

투수	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA
Dustin May(W, 3-2)	5.1	6	1	1	1	5	1	97-59	5.84
Justin Bruihl	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	27-16	5.84
Ryne Stanek	0.2	1	2	2	3	2	0	32-15	9.00
George Soriano(H, 2)	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	6-5	4.66
Riley O'Brien(S, 7)	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	17-11	0.00

Miami Marlins — 투구

투수	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA
Chris Paddack(L, 0-4)	4.2	8	5	5	1	7	1	90-60	6.38
John King	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	19-14	0.90
Tyler Phillips	3.0	2	0	0	1	3	0	40-26	0.60

경기 정보

심판: Home Plate: Manny Gonzalez; First Base: Jacob Metz; Second Base: Tom Hanahan; Third Base: Scott Barry

구장: loanDepot park, Miami

날씨: 72°F, Roof Closed

바람: 0 mph, None

St. Louis Cardinals — 뉴스

카디널스, 노트바르 60일 부상자 명단에서 복귀 등록

세인트루이스는 장기 부상 후 라인업 깊이에 타자를 복귀시켰지만, 이 움직임은 팀이 31-28의 전적을 기록하고 최근 10경기에서 3-7의 성적을 거두고 있을 때 나온 것이다. 노트바르의 복귀는 로스터 유연성 문제는 해결하지만 로테이션의 어려움은 해결하지 못한다—5명의 선발 투수가 합쳐져 4.27의 평균자책점을 기록 중이며 xwOBA 값은 0.311에서 0.383 범위이다.

Lars Nootbaar

St. Louis Cardinals

카디널스, 룰 5 드래프트 선발 매트 푸샤드를 말린스에 반환

푸샤드는 세인트루이스에서 한 이닝도 던지지 못했으며(0 IP에서 ERA 27.00), 룰 5 선발 직후 곧바로 IL에 올랐다. 마이애미의 현재 5인 선발 로테이션(메이어 중심으로 ERA 2.97, 74 탈삼진)을 고려하면 이 조치는 양 팀의 선발 로테이션에 미미한 영향을 미친다.

Matt Pushard

St. Louis Cardinals

Miami Marlins

레인저스, 어깨 충돌증후군으로 크리스 마틴을 부상자명단에 등록

텍사스는 28-31의 전적으로 +7의 득점차를 유지하면서 시즌 중반 불펜 전력 손실을 입었다. 쿠르벨로의 복귀(2026년 성적 없음)와 알스트롬의 메이저리그 첫 등장은 옵션을 제공하지만, 둘 다 오늘 밤 디그롬과 대면하는 카디널스 타선을 상대로 메이저리그 성적을 입증하지 못했다.

Chris Martin

St. Louis Cardinals

Texas Rangers

카디널스가 매트 푸샤드를 지정, 헌터 도빈스 소환

푸샤드는 이 거래 전 STL에서 0경기를 했으며, 이는 단순한 40명 명단 결정이다. 도빈스는 리베라토레(4.76 ERA, 1.57 WHIP)와 리히(4.25 ERA, 1.55 WHIP)가 모두 4.25 ERA 이상인 로테이션에 들어간다.

Matt Pushard

Hunter Dobbins

St. Louis Cardinals

지미 크룩스, 포수로서 안정적인 선발 기회 획득 예정

크룩스는 공격력 생산성을 평가할 수 있는 2026년 통계가 없으며, 이는 STL에게 업그레이드가 아닌 로스터 보강책이다—카디널스는 득점차 -10으로 NLC 3위를 차지하고 있으면서 4연패 중이다.

Jimmy Crooks

St. Louis Cardinals

Miami Marlins — 뉴스

카디널스, 룰 5 드래프트 선발 매트 푸샤드를 말린스에 반환

Matt Pushard

St. Louis Cardinals

Miami Marlins

에르난데스: 2개 홈런, 3타점으로 말린스가 내셔널스 격파

에르난데스의 2개 홈런은 마이애미의 4연패를 끝냈으며 말린스에게 홈에서의 5경기 중 첫 승리를 선사했다(18-15). 워싱턴의 투수진은 시즌 330실점(NL동부 최악)을 허용했으며, 0.508 승률을 감안하면 31-30의 전적은 놀랍게도 회복력 있어 보인다.

Miami Marlins

Washington Nationals

말린스, 트리플-A에서 브지키와 주버 선발

마이애미는 안정성으로 고군분투하는 로테이션에 투수를 추가한다(Junk 4.80 방어율, 3승 5패; 알칸타라 4.66 방어율). 팀은 26승 34패이며 최근 5경기 원정 전적은 0승 8패이다.

Miami Marlins

말린스, 자크 브즈키 선발

브즈키는 현재 마이어(ERA 2.97, 5-0)가 주축인 마이애미 로테이션에 합류하지만 알칸타라(ERA 4.66)와 정크(ERA 4.80, 3-5)에 크게 의존하고 있습니다. 이 선택은 마이애미가 26-33의 전적으로 -20의 득점 차를 기록하고 있는 가운데 로테이션 깊이를 보강하는 조치입니다.

Miami Marlins

잔슨 정크: 선발 예정 없음, IL 등재 가능성

정크(평균자책점 4.80, 3승 5패)는 일요일 NYM 전에서 마이애미 로테이션에서 제외된다. 유리 페레즈가 이미 (내전근 근육 손상으로) 제외된 상황에서 말린스는 이미 취약한 투수진에서 깊이 문제에 직면하고 있다. 정크가 IL에 등재되면 마이애미 로테이션은 남은 선발투수들에 크게 의존하게 될 것이다.

Janson Junk