This matchup features two struggling teams looking to build momentum, but Miami enters with significant advantages. The Marlins have captured the first two games of this series, outscoring the Mets 6-2 while showing renewed life at home. Tyler Phillips makes his latest start for Miami, though his limited recent work (averaging just 29 pitches per outing) suggests he may not go deep into the game. His fastball sits in the mid-90s with a diverse mix including a splitter and curveball, but his inexperience at this level remains a concern against a Mets lineup anchored by Juan Soto. Christian Scott brings superior stuff to the mound for New York, featuring a plus fastball that touches 98 mph and solid secondary offerings. His recent starts show better durability than Phillips, consistently throwing 80+ pitches. However, Scott faces a Miami lineup that has found its groove lately, particularly Xavier Edwards (.309 average) and Otto Lopez (.340 average), who have provided unexpected offensive production. The Mets' injury crisis continues to decimate their roster - Francisco Lindor, Francisco Alvarez, and Luis Robert Jr. are all sidelined, forcing them to rely heavily on depth pieces and recent call-ups. Miami's bullpen situation appears more stable despite their overall struggles, while the Mets just designated closer Craig Kimbrel for assignment, creating uncertainty in late-inning situations. The weather conditions favor offense with 87-degree temperatures and clear skies, though the southeast wind at 12 mph could affect fly balls. The Marlins' two-game winning streak and superior home record (17-15 vs 11-17 road for NYM) provide additional edges in what should be a competitive but low-scoring affair between two rebuilding clubs.

Scoring Dynamics

Early (1-3) 2R Early offense from both starters settling in

Middle (4-6) 4R Phillips tires, Scott maintains effectiveness

Late (7-9) 2R Bullpens trade zeros mostly

Matchup Analysis

Marlins

Strong recent momentum with 2-game sweep

Home field advantage at loanDepot park

Edwards and Lopez providing offensive spark

Phillips lacks track record

Rotation depth concerns with multiple IL pitchers

Mets

Scott's superior stuff and velocity

Juan Soto's proven bat

Better overall organizational depth

Decimated by injuries to key players

Poor road record (11-17)

Bullpen restructuring after Kimbrel DFA

Risk Factors

Phillips' inexperience could lead to early exit

Mets' injury-depleted lineup depth

Key Matchups

Juan Soto vs Tyler Phillips batter Elite hitter vs unproven pitcher

Xavier Edwards vs Christian Scott batter Hot hitter (.309) vs young pitcher

Statistical Edges

First to Score Mets 58%

Strikeouts 14 11-17

Total Runs 8 6-10

Game Preview

Christian Scott takes the mound for the Mets with their season hanging in the balance, but Miami strikes first when Xavier Edwards leads off the bottom of the first with a sharp single and comes around to score on Otto Lopez's RBI double. Scott settles in after the early damage, using his mid-90s fastball to retire the side in order in the second inning. Tyler Phillips matches Scott early, working around a Juan Soto single in the second inning by inducing a double play. The game remains quiet until the fourth, when the Marlins manufacture another run as Lopez draws a walk and scores on a Kyle Stowers sacrifice fly. Phillips begins to labor in the fifth, walking two batters before Christian Scott helps his own cause with an RBI single to cut the deficit in half. The pivotal sixth inning sees Phillips exit after loading the bases with one out. Miami's bullpen escapes the jam but not before surrendering the tying run on a Marcus Semien sacrifice fly. The Marlins respond immediately in the bottom half, with Edwards and Lopez setting the table again before a Christopher Morel two-run double puts Miami ahead 4-2. The Marlins add an insurance run in the eighth on a Brett Baty error, while the Mets manage one final run on a Soto RBI single but fall short of completing the comeback, giving Miami a satisfying series sweep.

The 67% confidence reflects Miami's strong recent form and home-field advantage, but acknowledges Phillips' inexperience and the Mets' talent edge on paper despite their injuries. The series momentum heavily favors the Marlins.

Probable Pitchers

New York Mets — Roster

Player	Pos	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG
Carson Benge	RF	.246	3	17	.305	.337
Bo Bichette	SS	.218	5	27	.266	.315
A.J. Ewing	CF	.275	1	4	.396	.400
Mark Vientos	1B	.231	6	23	.271	.394
Brett Baty	3B	.236	3	21	.311	.350
Marcus Semien	2B	.214	3	18	.263	.297
Nick Morabito	DH	.000	0	0	.125	.000
Tyrone Taylor	LF	.189	3	14	.214	.326
Luis Torrens	C	.195	0	11	.262	.273

Miami Marlins — Roster

Player	Pos	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG
Liam Hicks	C	.275	11	44	.346	.497
Xavier Edwards	2B	.313	6	19	.395	.478
Heriberto Hernández	LF	.193	2	17	.287	.284
Kyle Stowers	RF	.205	3	8	.299	.330
Otto Lopez	SS	.337	4	21	.367	.481
Jakob Marsee	CF	.198	3	14	.320	.305
Graham Pauley	1B	.175	1	9	.224	.288
Esteury Ruiz	PR	.216	2	5	.231	.514
Javier Sanoja	3B	.262	1	18	.319	.364

Scoring Plays

▼ 9

Heriberto Hernández hits a grand slam (2) to center field. Esteury Ruiz scores. Liam Hicks scores. Xavier Edwards scores.

0-4

New York Mets — Batting

Player	AB	H	BB	K	AVG	OPS
Carson BengeRF	4	0	1	2	.246	.642
Bo BichetteSS	4	1	0	1	.218	.581
A.J. EwingCF	4	2	0	1	.275	.796
Mark Vientos1B	4	0	0	0	.231	.665
Brett Baty3B	3	1	1	2	.236	.661
Marcus Semien2B	4	0	0	0	.214	.560
Nick MorabitoDH	0	0	0	0	.000	.125
Tyrone TaylorLF	3	0	1	0	.189	.540
Luis TorrensC	1	0	1	0	.195	.535
Totals	31	5	5	8

BATTING

TB: Baty; Bichette; Ewing 2; Melendez, M.

Runners left in scoring position, 2 out: Ewing; Benge; Taylor, T; Senger; Vientos 2.

GIDP: Semien.

Team RISP: 0-for-8.

Team LOB: 10.

BASERUNNING

SB: Ewing (3, 2nd base off Phillips/Hicks, L); Benge (9, 2nd base off Bender/Hicks, L).

CS: Morabito (1, 2nd base by Fairbanks/Hicks, L).

FIELDING

Outfield assists: Ewing (Sanoja at home).

a-Lined out for Senger in the 7th.

1-Ran for Melendez, M in the 9th.

Miami Marlins — Batting

Player	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	HR	AVG	OPS
Liam HicksC	2	1	0	0	3	0	0	.275	.843
Xavier Edwards2B	3	1	2	0	2	0	0	.313	.873
Heriberto HernándezLF	2	1	2	4	0	0	1	.193	.571
Kyle StowersRF	4	0	0	0	0	1	0	.205	.629
Otto LopezSS	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	.337	.848
Jakob MarseeCF	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	.198	.625
Graham Pauley1B	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	.175	.512
Esteury RuizPR	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	.216	.745
Javier Sanoja3B	3	0	2	0	0	0	0	.262	.683
Totals	32	4	9	4	5	6	1

BATTING

2B: Edwards, X (9, Scott); Sanoja (8, Brazobán); Morel, C (3, Williams, D).

HR: Hernández, H (2, 9th inning off Williams, D, 3 on, 1 out).

TB: Edwards, X 3; Hernández, H 5; Lopez, O; Marsee; Morel, C 2; Sanoja 3.

RBI: Hernández, H 4 (17).

Runners left in scoring position, 2 out: Sanoja; Stowers 5.

SAC: Sanoja.

Team RISP: 3-for-10.

Team LOB: 10.

FIELDING

E: Sanoja (5, throw).

DP: (Lopez, O-Edwards, X-Pauley).

a-Singled for Caissie in the 7th.

1-Ran for Morel, C in the 9th.

New York Mets — Pitching

Pitcher	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA
Christian Scott	5.2	4	0	0	2	5	0	94-56	3.20
Huascar Brazobán	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	8-5	1.73
Brooks Raley	0.2	2	0	0	1	0	0	13-8	1.35
Luke Weaver	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	11-7	3.22
Devin Williams(L, 3-2)	0.1	2	4	4	2	0	1	14-8	6.35

Miami Marlins — Pitching

Pitcher	IP	H	BB	K	PC-ST	ERA
Tyler Phillips	3.2	2	2	4	59-37	1.07
Calvin Faucher	1.1	2	0	1	23-18	3.92
John King	0.2	0	1	0	13-4	2.11
Anthony Bender	1.0	0	1	0	11-6	3.38
Michael Petersen	1.1	0	0	2	17-11	3.66
Pete Fairbanks(W, 2-2)	1.0	1	1	1	16-11	7.62

Game Info

Umpires: Home Plate: Jansen Visconti; First Base: Manny Gonzalez; Second Base: Cory Blaser; Third Base: Derek Thomas

Venue: loanDepot park, Miami

Weather: 72°F, Roof Closed

Wind: 0 mph, None

New York Mets — News

George Kirby takes fifth loss against Mets

Kirby's 3.77 ERA and 7.18 K/9 remain solid, but four earned runs in four innings Wednesday signal recent struggles in a season where he's posted a 0.294 xwOBA. Seattle (21-40) sits 11.5 games back in the AL West with limited margin for rotation inefficiency.

George Kirby

New York Mets

Mets playing 12 extra-inning games; three more than any other team

NYM (26-34, -14 run diff) is 4-6 in last 10 and 11-19 on the road—extra-inning games expose depth bullpens and compress rest, compounding their already weak run differential. Harrison (1.57 ERA, 15 SO in 14.2 IP) faces a MIL team while Gausman (3.13 ERA, 8.61 K/9) opposes Braves starters Elder (2.50 ERA) and Sale (2.02 ERA) in a matchup favoring Atlanta's elite rotation.

Atlanta Braves

New York Mets

Mets Select Cionel Perez, Designate Anderson Severino

Peterson's 5.57 ERA and 0-4 record across 5 starts justify rotation depth moves, though Perez's Triple-A performance remains unavailable to assess immediate impact. New York sits 24-33 with a -27 run differential and needs rotation stability behind Peralta's 3.54 ERA.

Anderson Severino

New York Mets

Manaea takes Peterson's rotation spot for Mets

Peterson's 5.57 ERA and 0-4 record across 5 starts justify the swap, though Manaea arrives with a 5.56 ERA and no IP this season—NYM remain 23-33 (-29 run diff) searching for rotation stability behind Peralta's 3.52 ERA.

Sean Manaea

New York Mets

Rays Sign Outfielder Austin Slater To Minor League Deal

Slater (.209 AVG, .233 xwOBA in 2026) joins Tampa Bay's fourth organization this season after being outrighted by the Mets. The Rays (34-17, +38 run differential) add depth to an AL East-leading roster.

Austin Slater

Tampa Bay Rays

New York Mets

Miami Marlins — News

Hernandez: 2 HR, 3 RBI in Marlins win over Nationals

Hernandez's two-homer night snapped Miami's 4-game skid and gave the Marlins their first win in five games at home (18-15). Washington's pitching has given up 330 runs this season (worst in NL East), making their 31-30 record surprisingly resilient given the 0.508 win% profile.

Miami Marlins

Washington Nationals

Marlins Select Brzykcy and Zuber From Triple-A

Miami adds depth arms to a rotation struggling with durability (Junk 4.80 ERA, 3-5 record; Alcantara 4.66 ERA) while sitting 26-34 and 0-8 in road games over their last five contests.

Miami Marlins

Marlins select Zach Brzykcy

Brzykcy enters a Miami rotation currently anchored by Meyer (2.97 ERA, 5-0) but relying heavily on Alcantara (4.66 ERA) and Junk (4.80 ERA, 3-5). The move addresses rotation depth as Miami sits 26-33 with a -20 run differential.

Miami Marlins

Janson Junk: Not starting, could hit IL

Junk (4.80 ERA, 3-5) exits Miami's rotation Sunday against NYM; with Eury Pérez already sidelined (gracilis strain), the Marlins face depth concerns in an already fragile staff. MIA's rotation would lean heavily on remaining starters if Junk lands on IL.

Janson Junk

Eury Pérez

Miami Marlins

Eury Pérez to miss eight weeks with gracilis strain

Pérez's 4.60 ERA and 3-6 record made him vulnerable in Miami's rotation, but his 10.34 K/9 over 62.2 IP leaves the Marlins thinner behind Max Meyer (2.52 ERA, 5-0). Josh Ekness (1.69 ERA, limited sample) inherits a fourth-starter role in a rotation already anchored by Meyer and Alcántara (4.66 ERA, 3-4).

Max Meyer

Eury Pérez