返回比赛 星期五, 五月 29, 2026

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Seattle Mariners — 五月 29, 2026 | AI 预测与数据

T-Mobile Park, Seattle
58°F, Roof Closed
5 mph, In From LF
W Cooper Criswell L Juan Morillo

记分板

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 R H E
Diamondbacks 0 0 0 1 0 4 0 0 1 0 6 13 0
Mariners 1 0 2 0 2 1 0 0 0 1 7 13 0

AI预测神经网络预测

AI
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R
Diamondbacks 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 2 0 5
Mariners 0 1 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 4
Confidence: 68% Diamondbacks favored
这场比赛呈现两支球队走势相反的态势,亚利桑那州骑士队正经历五连胜,而西雅图水手队最近在对阵较弱的奥克兰投手时获得成功。乔治·柯比和扎克·加伦之间的投手对决明显偏向西雅图,因为柯比的3.54自责分率和卓越的速球指标远超加伦本赛季的挣扎(4.80自责分率,1.44WHIP)。然而,亚利桑那州明显更好的战绩(31-24对28-29)和最近的进攻势头不容忽视。响尾蛇队在目前五连胜期间累计得分42分,每场比赛平均超过8分。西雅图的伤兵情况令人担忧,特别是捕手卡尔·拉雷和三垒手布伦丹·多诺万的缺席,这迫使阵容调整可能会影响他们的进攻节奏。维克多·罗布莱斯的最近激活提供了一些稳定性,但他的.292打率伴随有限的长打产能。亚利桑那州的阵容尽管缺少卡洛斯·桑塔纳和路易斯·古里埃尔二世,仍然拥有科宾·卡罗尔(.293,7轰)和伊尔德玛罗·瓦尔加斯(.303,7轰,35分打点)这对动态搭档,他们一直在承担进攻的重担。T-Mobile球场的52度凉爽天气和阴天条件通常会抑制进攻数据,这应该有利于两位先发投手,但特别有利于柯比的四缝线速球和滑球组合。亚利桙那州的牛棚在他们的火热时期更加可靠,随着盖布·斯皮尔刚被西雅图激活,对他们晚局深度存在疑问。响尾蛇队在这次连胜期间优异的客场表现,加上他们的势头和略占优势的进攻健康状况,使他们在这场预计会是低得分的对决中略占上风。

Scoring Dynamics

Early (1-3) 2R 两位先发投手在允许早期失分后找到节奏
Middle (4-6) 3R 投手找到节奏后的孤立得分
Late (7-9) 4R 亚利桑那州牛棚优势在晚局显现

Matchup Analysis

Mariners

乔治·柯比的速球和旋转率
近期对奥克兰的强进攻表现
在T-Mobile球场的主场优势
缺少关键球员卡尔·拉雷和布伦丹·多诺万
主场战绩不稳定(14-15)

Diamondbacks

优异的战绩和势头(5连胜)
伊尔德玛罗·瓦尔加斯和科宾·卡罗尔领导进攻
近期客场表现更佳
扎克·加伦的高自责分率和WHIP
因伤缺少多名关键进攻球员

Risk Factors

凉爽天气影响球的飞行轨迹
两支球队都缺少关键进攻贡献者

Key Matchups

Randy Arozarena vs Zac Gallen batter 阿罗萨雷纳的.295打率对阵加伦的4.80自责分率
Corbin Carroll vs George Kirby pitcher 柯比的滑球对左打者速度的有效性
Ildemaro Vargas vs George Kirby batter 瓦尔加斯以.303打率领导亚利桑那州进攻

Statistical Edges

First to Score Diamondbacks 62%
Strikeouts 14 11-17
Total Runs 9 7-11

Game Preview

比赛开始时,扎克·加伦在太平洋西北部寒冷的夜晚苦于控球,先发球员兰迪·阿罗萨雷纳四坏球上垒,随后一记带分的单打使亚利桑那州以1-0领先。乔治·柯比通过找到节奏做出回应,利用提高的速球速度在前两局连续保送水手队出局。西雅图在第二局做出回应,当维克多·罗布莱斯获得先发四坏球上垒,最终在帕特里克·威斯顿的牺牲高飞球中得分,将比分扳为1-1。两位投手在中局找到节奏,柯比的滑球对亚利桑那州的左打者特别有效。响尾蛇队在第三局突破,科宾·卡罗尔盗二垒,伊尔德玛罗·瓦尔加斯打出左外野线路二垒安打得分。西雅图的最佳得分机会出现在第四局,他们在一人出局时满垒,但加伦逃过,在兰迪·阿罗萨雷纳的两分单打上只允许两分,使水手队短暂以3-2领先。比赛在第六局转变,当亚利桑那州利用西雅图牛棚的过渡,在加布里埃尔·莫雷诺的一垒安打得分中得分,将比分扳为3-3。决定性时刻出现在第八局,当响尾蛇队对西雅图过度劳累的救援投手连续送出三支安打时,卡罗尔和瓦尔加斯连续打出带分单打以5-3领先。亚利桑那州的关门投手尽管西雅图晚期尝试反扑,仍保住最后三个出局数,完成响尾蛇队的第六场连胜,并维持他们在国联西区竞争中的强势地位。
信心水平反映了亚利桑那州最近的优异表现和势头,相比西雅图与柯比的投手优势。虽然柯比应该明显超越加伦,但亚利桑那州炽热的进攻和晚局牛棚优势提供了决定性因素。
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Arizona Diamondbacks — 阵容

球员位置AVGHRRBIOBPSLG
Ketel Marte
2B .271932.326.467
Corbin Carroll
RF .294728.390.546
Geraldo Perdomo
SS .232321.341.362
Gabriel Moreno
C .268319.325.420
Tim Tawa
DH .17518.273.263
Ryan Waldschmidt
CF .29407.351.397
Ildemaro Vargas
1B .295737.322.472
Jose Fernandez
3B .268315.301.376
Tommy Troy
LF .31300.421.438

Seattle Mariners — 阵容

球员位置AVGHRRBIOBPSLG
J.P. Crawford
SS .218922.344.397
Julio Rodríguez
CF .2651129.323.457
Josh Naylor
1B .258524.323.352
Randy Arozarena
LF .297626.382.467
Victor Robles
RF .29201.292.375
Cole Young
2B .243327.320.347
Rob Refsnyder
DH .12038.198.240
Mitch Garver
C .20326.353.319
Colt Emerson
3B .22916.325.457

得分记录

1
J.P. Crawford homers (8) on a fly ball to right field.
0-1
3
Julio Rodríguez homers (11) on a line drive to left field. J.P. Crawford scores.
0-3
4
Geraldo Perdomo homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.
1-3
5
J.P. Crawford homers (9) on a fly ball to center field. Jhonny Pereda scores.
1-5
6
Gabriel Moreno doubles (8) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Corbin Carroll scores. Geraldo Perdomo scores.
3-5
6
Ildemaro Vargas grounds into a force out, first baseman Josh Naylor to shortstop J.P. Crawford. Gabriel Moreno scores. Adrian Del Castillo to 3rd. Ryan Waldschmidt out at 2nd. Ildemaro Vargas to 1st.
4-5
6
Jose Fernandez singles on a line drive to right fielder Luke Raley. Adrian Del Castillo scores. Ildemaro Vargas to 3rd.
5-5
6
Luke Raley homers (12) on a fly ball to right field.
5-6
9
Ildemaro Vargas reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by first baseman Josh Naylor. Geraldo Perdomo scores. Gabriel Moreno to 3rd. Tim Tawa to 2nd.
6-6
10
Randy Arozarena doubles (16) on a line drive to center fielder Ryan Waldschmidt. J.P. Crawford scores. Josh Naylor to 3rd.
6-7

Arizona Diamondbacks — 打击

球员ABRHRBIBBKHRAVGOPS
Ketel Marte2B
4000210.271.793
Corbin CarrollRF
6120010.294.936
Geraldo PerdomoSS
6331001.232.703
Gabriel MorenoC
5132000.268.745
Tim TawaDH
0000000.175.536
Ryan WaldschmidtCF
5010020.294.748
Ildemaro Vargas1B
5002000.295.794
Jose Fernandez3B
5031000.268.677
Tommy TroyLF
4000120.313.859
总计436136471
BATTING
2B: Fernandez, Jo 2 (7, Kirby, Bazardo); Perdomo (9, Kirby); Moreno (8, Kirby).
HR: Perdomo (3, 4th inning off Kirby, 0 on, 0 out).
TB: Arenado; Carroll 2; Fernandez, Jo 5; Moreno 4; Perdomo 7; Waldschmidt.
RBI: Fernandez, Jo (15); Moreno 2 (19); Perdomo (21); Vargas, I 2 (37).
2-out RBI: Fernandez, Jo.
Runners left in scoring position, 2 out: Troy 2; Marte, K 2; Waldschmidt; Carroll 2; Perdomo.
Team RISP: 3-for-17.
Team LOB: 13.
FIELDING
Outfield assists: Waldschmidt (Naylor, J at 2nd base).
DP: 2 (Marte, K-Perdomo-Vargas, I; Perdomo-Vargas, I).
a-Singled for Del Castillo in the 7th.
1-Ran for Arenado in the 9th.

Seattle Mariners — 打击

球员ABRHRBIBBKHRAVGOPS
J.P. CrawfordSS
4423112.218.741
Julio RodríguezCF
5132011.265.780
Josh Naylor1B
4010100.258.675
Randy ArozarenaLF
5021000.297.849
Victor RoblesRF
0000000.292.667
Cole Young2B
4010000.243.667
Rob RefsnyderDH
1000010.120.438
Mitch GarverC
0000000.203.672
Colt Emerson3B
4000030.229.782
总计387137294
BATTING
2B: Rodríguez, J (12, Pfaadt); Arozarena (16, Morillo, J).
HR: Crawford, J 2 (9, 1st inning off Gallen, 0 on, 0 out, 5th inning off Gallen, 1 on, 1 out); Rodríguez, J (11, 3rd inning off Gallen, 1 on, 2 out); Raley, L (12, 6th inning off Pfaadt, 0 on, 1 out).
TB: Arozarena 3; Crawford, J 8; Naylor, J; Pereda; Raley, L 5; Rodríguez, J 7; Wisdom; Young.
RBI: Arozarena (26); Crawford, J 3 (22); Raley, L (30); Rodríguez, J 2 (29).
2-out RBI: Rodríguez, J 2.
Runners left in scoring position, 2 out: Naylor, J.
GIDP: Canzone; Naylor, J.
Team RISP: 2-for-6.
Team LOB: 6.
BASERUNNING
SB: Arozarena (15, 2nd base off Gallen/Moreno).
FIELDING
DP: (Young-Naylor, J).
a-Struck out for Canzone in the 9th.
b-Singled for Pereda in the 9th.

Arizona Diamondbacks — 投球

投手IPHRERBBKHRPC-STERA
Zac Gallen
5.085512384-535.16
Brandon Pfaadt
1.231103131-205.59
Taylor Clarke
0.10000004-31.96
Jonathan Loáisiga
1.000001016-132.53
Brandyn Garcia
1.010002016-100.90
Juan Morillo(L, 1-2)
0.11101109-62.86

Seattle Mariners — 投球

投手IPHRERBBKHRPC-STERA
George Kirby
5.164414187-613.77
Matt Brash(BS, 2)
0.221121022-110.64
José A. Ferrer(H, 7)
0.210000012-91.75
Eduard Bazardo(H, 10)
1.020010027-152.13
Gabe Speier(H, 6)
0.10000103-32.63
Andrés Muñoz(BS, 4)
1.021101025-164.98
Cooper Criswell(W, 2-1)
1.00000009-73.20

比赛信息

裁判: Home Plate: Chris Guccione; First Base: David Rackley; Second Base: Nestor Ceja; Third Base: Louie Krupa
球场: T-Mobile Park, Seattle
天气: 58°F, Roof Closed
风: 5 mph, In From LF

Seattle Mariners — 新闻

赛季对比

Diamondbacks
STAT
Mariners
32-28 战绩 33-29
53.3% Win % 53.2%
.533 PCT .532
273 得分 266
263 失分 230
60 比赛场次 62
L1 连胜/负 W8
6-4 最近10场 8-2
19-11 主场战绩 19-15
13-17 客场战绩 14-14

交手记录

0
最近 2 次交手
2
五月 31
Diamondbacks 2 - 3 Mariners
五月 30
Diamondbacks 1 - 5 Mariners

Diamondbacks 近期

六月 2 vs Dodgers 6-5 L
六月 1 vs Dodgers 1-4 W
五月 31 @ Mariners 2-3 L
五月 30 @ Mariners 1-5 L
五月 27 @ Giants 3-2 W

Mariners 近期

六月 3 vs Mets 7-1 L
六月 2 vs Mets 3-8 W
六月 1 vs Mets 2-3 W
五月 31 vs Diamondbacks 2-3 W
五月 30 vs Diamondbacks 1-5 W

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