Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Hei 26, 2026 | AI-ennuste ja tilastot

The key story in this series finale is an enormous starting pitching mismatch that should swing the outcome toward Pittsburgh despite their recent struggles. Braxton Ashcraft has been one of the more underrated arms in the NL this season, carrying a 3.07 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over 96.2 innings with 107 strikeouts. His four-pitch mix — a 97 mph four-seamer, an above-average curveball, a hard slider, and a sinker — gives him genuine swing-and-miss upside, and his last three starts show he's been working efficiently. Jameson Taillon, by contrast, is operating with his lowest velocity readings in years (85.1 mph average velo in his last outing), a 5.38 ERA, and a 2-5 record. He's clearly still working his way back from the IL stint, and PNC Park's pitcher-friendly dimensions only help Ashcraft, not Taillon. Pittsburgh has endured an ugly L3 skid including an 11-0 demolition yesterday, but the lineup retains real weapons. Ryan O'Hearn (16 HR, 64 RBI, .277) and Nick Gonzales (.312, 6 HR) should have opportunities against a diminished Taillon. Brandon Lowe adds power from the left side. The Cubs' offensive core around Nico Hoerner, Michael Conforto, and Pedro Ramírez is solid, but Chicago has dominated this series largely on Pittsburgh pitching struggles, not matchup advantages that carry over today. Chicago's bullpen has been ravaged by injuries — Justin Steele, Porter Hodge, Ben Brown, Hoby Milner, and Hunter Harvey are all on the IL. Drew Pomeranz was recently released. What remains is usable (Webb at 2.91 ERA, Thornton at 2.70) but thin. Pittsburgh's pen similarly faces depth questions but benefits from Ashcraft potentially going deep into the game.