This matchup presents a fascinating contrast between a Reds team riding momentum and a Mets club desperately seeking to halt their slide. Chase Burns brings elite stuff to the mound for Cincinnati, featuring a four-seam fastball that averages 98.1 mph and a devastating slider that accounts for 37% of his repertoire. His recent velocity readings show consistency in the mid-90s with the ability to reach triple digits, making him a legitimate weapon against a Mets lineup already struggling without Francisco Lindor and Francisco Alvarez. The Mets' TBD starter creates significant uncertainty, though their recent rotation struggles suggest they may be forced into a bullpen game or emergency starter situation. Elly De La Cruz continues to be a dynamic force for Cincinnati with 12 home runs and elite speed that can change games instantly. His .288 average paired with Nathaniel Lowe's steady .268 clip gives the Reds multiple threats against whatever New York throws at them. The Mets counter with Juan Soto when healthy, though recent illness concerns add another layer of uncertainty to an already volatile situation. The overcast conditions and 8 mph wind at Citi Field should create neutral offensive conditions, though both teams have shown the ability to score in bunches recently. Cincinnati's 7-2 victory yesterday demonstrates their current form advantage, while New York's four-game losing streak reflects deeper systemic issues beyond just pitching matchups. The Reds' recent activation of Caleb Ferguson from the IL provides bullpen depth that could prove crucial in what projects as a competitive contest.

Scoring Dynamics

Early (1-3) 4R Burns vulnerable early, Mets TBD starter struggles

Middle (4-6) 4R Both bullpens taxed, offensive opportunities

Late (7-9) 3R Late-game heroics determine winner

Matchup Analysis

Mets

Juan Soto when healthy

Citi Field home environment

Desperate for turnaround

Four-game losing streak

Missing Francisco Lindor and Francisco Alvarez

TBD starting pitcher uncertainty

Reds

Chase Burns elite velocity and stuff

Elly De La Cruz dynamic offense

Recent momentum with 2-game win streak

Burns still developing command

Road record mediocre at 14-13

Bullpen depth concerns

Risk Factors

Mets TBD starter could be major wildcard

Weather conditions favoring offense

Key Matchups

Elly De La Cruz vs TBD batter Elite speed vs unknown starter

Juan Soto vs Chase Burns batter Experience vs young flame-thrower

Nathaniel Lowe vs TBD batter Consistent contact vs uncertain Mets rotation

Statistical Edges

First to Score Reds 65%

Strikeouts 16 12-20

Total Runs 11 8-14

Game Preview

Chase Burns takes the mound with his signature high-octane approach, but the Mets jump on him early as Juan Soto works a leadoff walk in the first. However, Burns settles in quickly, using his devastating slider to escape further damage. The Reds respond immediately as Elly De La Cruz leads off the second with his trademark aggressive approach, turning on a mistake pitch for a solo home run that gives Cincinnati the early edge. The Mets' TBD starter struggles with command issues, and De La Cruz's speed creates chaos on the basepaths in the third inning, eventually scoring on a Nathaniel Lowe RBI single as part of a two-run frame. New York fights back in the fifth inning when Brett Baty launches a two-run homer to left field, capitalizing on Burns' occasional wildness. The middle innings become a battle of attrition as both bullpens are forced into action earlier than planned. The Reds regain control in the seventh when their lineup strings together quality at-bats against the Mets' relievers, pushing across two crucial runs that prove to be the difference. Despite a late rally attempt by New York in the ninth that produces one run, Cincinnati's pitching staff holds firm to secure the victory and extend their recent surge.

The confidence level reflects Cincinnati's clear advantages in starting pitching certainty and current momentum, offset somewhat by the inherent unpredictability of the Mets' TBD starter situation. Burns' elite stuff gives the Reds a significant edge, though his youth creates some volatility in the projection.

Probable Pitchers

Cincinnati Reds — Roster

Player	Pos	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG
Blake Dunn	RF	.311	1	2	.380	.467
Elly De La Cruz	SS	.284	12	37	.349	.518
Sal Stewart	DH	.256	12	35	.352	.478
Spencer Steer	1B	.266	7	21	.340	.435
Eugenio Suárez	3B	.245	3	13	.319	.382
Dane Myers	CF	.256	3	12	.366	.410
JJ Bleday	LF	.287	7	21	.387	.596
Tyler Stephenson	C	.191	4	17	.294	.321
Matt McLain	2B	.199	5	20	.295	.325

New York Mets — Roster

Player	Pos	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG
Carson Benge	RF	.242	3	18	.307	.330
Bo Bichette	SS	.228	5	27	.274	.321
Juan Soto	DH	.293	11	23	.387	.571
A.J. Ewing	CF	.271	1	4	.375	.375
Mark Vientos	1B	.229	6	23	.267	.386
Eric Wagaman	3B	.000	0	0	.000	.000
Marcus Semien	2B	.216	4	19	.264	.312
MJ Melendez	LF	.203	2	6	.322	.351
Luis Torrens	C	.202	0	11	.264	.286

Scoring Plays

▲ 1

Eugenio Suárez doubles (5) on a sharp line drive to center fielder A.J. Ewing. Sal Stewart scores. Spencer Steer scores.

2-0

▲ 4

Tyler Stephenson singles on a line drive to right fielder Carson Benge. Dane Myers scores. JJ Bleday to 3rd.

3-0

▲ 4

Elly De La Cruz doubles (13) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Carson Benge. Tyler Stephenson scores. Matt McLain scores.

5-0

▲ 6

Tyler Stephenson doubles (5) on a line drive to left fielder MJ Melendez. JJ Bleday scores. Tyler Stephenson to 3rd. Tyler Stephenson advances to 3rd, on a throwing error by shortstop Bo Bichette.

6-0

▼ 6

Juan Soto homers (11) on a fly ball to right center field. Bo Bichette scores.

6-2

▲ 8

Sal Stewart singles on a ground ball to right fielder Carson Benge, deflected by second baseman Marcus Semien. Blake Dunn scores. Elly De La Cruz to 3rd.

7-2

Cincinnati Reds — Batting

Player	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OPS
Blake DunnRF	4	1	1	0	1	1	.311	.847
Elly De La CruzSS	5	0	2	2	0	2	.284	.867
Sal StewartDH	5	1	2	1	0	2	.256	.830
Spencer Steer1B	3	1	0	0	2	1	.266	.775
Eugenio Suárez3B	5	0	2	2	0	2	.245	.701
Dane MyersCF	4	1	2	0	1	1	.256	.776
JJ BledayLF	5	1	3	0	0	2	.287	.983
Tyler StephensonC	4	1	2	2	1	1	.191	.615
Matt McLain2B	4	1	1	0	0	0	.199	.620
Totals	39	7	15	7	5	12

BATTING

2B: Suárez, E (5, Peterson, D); De La Cruz, E (13, Peterson, D); Stephenson, T (5, Peterson, D).

TB: Bleday 3; De La Cruz, E 3; Dunn; McLain, M; Myers 2; Stephenson, T 3; Stewart, S 2; Suárez, E 3.

RBI: De La Cruz, E 2 (37); Stephenson, T 2 (17); Stewart, S (35); Suárez, E 2 (13).

2-out RBI: Suárez, E 2; De La Cruz, E 2; Stewart, S.

Runners left in scoring position, 2 out: Steer; De La Cruz, E 3; Stewart, S; Bleday.

GIDP: Dunn.

Team RISP: 6-for-16.

Team LOB: 10.

BASERUNNING

CS: Dunn (1, 2nd base by Peterson, D/Torrens).

FIELDING

DP: (McLain, M-De La Cruz, E-Steer).

New York Mets — Batting

Player	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	HR	AVG	OPS
Carson BengeRF	4	0	0	0	0	1	0	.242	.637
Bo BichetteSS	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	.228	.595
Juan SotoDH	4	1	1	2	0	1	1	.293	.958
A.J. EwingCF	4	0	1	0	0	1	0	.271	.750
Mark Vientos1B	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	.229	.653
Eric Wagaman3B	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	.000	.000
Marcus Semien2B	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	.216	.576
MJ MelendezLF	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	.203	.673
Luis TorrensC	3	0	2	0	0	1	0	.202	.550
Totals	31	2	5	2	2	10	1

BATTING

2B: Torrens (7, Burns, Ch).

HR: Soto, J (11, 6th inning off Burns, Ch, 1 on, 1 out).

TB: Bichette; Ewing; Soto, J 4; Torrens 3.

RBI: Soto, J 2 (23).

Runners left in scoring position, 2 out: Soto, J; Bichette.

GIDP: Vientos.

Team RISP: 0-for-4.

Team LOB: 4.

FIELDING

E: Bichette (6, throw).

Outfield assists: Melendez, M (Suárez, E at home).

DP: (Peterson, D-Torrens-Young, J).

a-Grounded into a double play for Young, J in the 6th.

b-Struck out for Baty in the 7th.

Cincinnati Reds — Pitching

Pitcher	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA
Chase Burns(W, 7-1)	5.1	4	2	2	2	8	1	90-55	1.96
Sam Moll	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	0	24-16	2.55
Pierce Johnson	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	9-5	3.27
Brock Burke	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4-3	3.60
Tony Santillan	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10-7	5.57

New York Mets — Pitching

Pitcher	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC-ST	ERA
David Peterson(L, 3-5)	5.0	11	6	6	3	4	90-60	5.57
Sean Manaea	3.0	3	1	1	2	6	68-46	5.56
A.J. Minter	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	16-10	0.00

Game Info

Umpires: Home Plate: Emil Jimenez; First Base: Edwin Moscoso; Second Base: Hunter Wendelstedt; Third Base: Vic Carapazza

Venue: Citi Field, Flushing

Weather: 72°F, Cloudy

Wind: 8 mph, Out To LF

Cincinnati Reds — News

Reds Release Josh Staumont

Staumont's departure is a routine depth move for Cincinnati, which sits 31-29 with a -38 run differential and has already cycled multiple relievers this season.

Cincinnati Reds

Yunior Marté Elects Free Agency After Reds DFA

Marté's departure removes minor depth from Cincinnati's bullpen as the Reds navigate a 5-4 record over their last 10 games with a rotation already leaning on Abbott (4.02 ERA) while Singer (6.18 ERA) and Paddack (6.90 ERA) continue to struggle.

Cincinnati Reds

Reds Option Friedl, Recall Marté

Friedl exits after hitting .181/.252/.258 with a .252 xwOBA across 46 games, clearing space for Marté in Cincinnati's outfield as the Reds sit 31-29 with a -38 run differential.

TJ Friedl

Cincinnati Reds

Reds Designate Leibrandt, Richardson; Recall McCambley, Mey

Cincinnati (30-29, -39 run diff) clears rotation depth as Singer (6.18 ERA) and Paddack (6.90 ERA) continue to struggle; McCambley and Mey arrive with no 2026 track record, suggesting organizational desperation in a rotation averaging 5.70 ERA across five starters.

Lyon Richardson

Cincinnati Reds

Reds place De La Cruz on IL with hamstring strain; Arroyo debuts at SS

Cincinnati loses its primary offensive engine (.362 xwOBA, 12 HR in 58 G) mid-stretch while the Reds sit 30-28 with a -32 run differential. Arroyo's debut fills the position but lacks 2026 MLB data, and the rotation remains thin with Singer (6.18 ERA) and Paddack (6.90 ERA) as backup arms.

Elly De La Cruz

Edwin Arroyo

Cincinnati Reds

New York Mets — News

Mets playing 12 extra-inning games; three more than any other team

NYM (26-34, -14 run diff) is 4-6 in last 10 and 11-19 on the road—extra-inning games expose depth bullpens and compress rest, compounding their already weak run differential. Harrison (1.57 ERA, 15 SO in 14.2 IP) faces a MIL team while Gausman (3.13 ERA, 8.61 K/9) opposes Braves starters Elder (2.50 ERA) and Sale (2.02 ERA) in a matchup favoring Atlanta's elite rotation.

Atlanta Braves

New York Mets

Mets Select Cionel Perez, Designate Anderson Severino

Peterson's 5.57 ERA and 0-4 record across 5 starts justify rotation depth moves, though Perez's Triple-A performance remains unavailable to assess immediate impact. New York sits 24-33 with a -27 run differential and needs rotation stability behind Peralta's 3.54 ERA.

Anderson Severino

New York Mets

Manaea takes Peterson's rotation spot for Mets

Peterson's 5.57 ERA and 0-4 record across 5 starts justify the swap, though Manaea arrives with a 5.56 ERA and no IP this season—NYM remain 23-33 (-29 run diff) searching for rotation stability behind Peralta's 3.52 ERA.

Sean Manaea

New York Mets

Rays Sign Outfielder Austin Slater To Minor League Deal

Slater (.209 AVG, .233 xwOBA in 2026) joins Tampa Bay's fourth organization this season after being outrighted by the Mets. The Rays (34-17, +38 run differential) add depth to an AL East-leading roster.

Austin Slater

Tampa Bay Rays

New York Mets

Mets Reinstate A.J. Minter From 60-Day IL, Select Eric Wagaman

Minter returns to a bullpen that has allowed 234 runs (4.43 RA/9) while the Mets sit 22-32 with a -26 run differential. Jared Young's reinstatement adds depth to an infield struggling at the plate, though neither move addresses the rotation's 5.03 ERA in Peterson's five starts.

Jared Young

Eric Wagaman

A.J. Minter

New York Mets