這場比賽展現了密爾瓦基聯盟領先狀態與休士頓傷患滿身名單之間的迷人對比。釀酒人隊以國聯最佳的33-20戰績和令人印象深刻的+78分差進場,剛剛橫掃聖路易斯三場。與此同時,太空人隊儘管最近有一波熱潮,但仍然在五成以下7場,核心球員Jose Altuve、Carlos Correa和終結者Josh Hader受傷,名單殘破。投手陣容特別受創,Hunter Brown、Cristian Javier和Ronel Blanco都在長期傷兵名單上。Coleman Crow從三A納什維爾被召回後為密爾瓦基進行僅第三次大聯盟先發,帶來以下切球為主的方式,在有限的表現中展現了前景。3.38的防禦率掩蓋了某些經驗不足,但釀酒人隊優越的後援投手深度提供了重要的安全網。Kai-Wei Teng以2.19防禦率為休士頓應戰,建立在以滑球為主的攻擊周圍,但他最近的速度下降表明由於輪轉傷兵導致的工作量增加而感到疲勞。天氣增添了懸念,雷暴威脅著大金公園,85度的高溫為兩位先發者都創造了具有挑戰性的條件。密爾瓦基由William Contreras(.303)和重振雄風的Christian Yelich領導的耐心進攻方式,應該會讓Teng早期控球受到考驗。休士頓的希望主要寄託在Yordan Alvarez身上,他的20支全壘打和.312打率代表了他們主要的進攻武器,以及Christian Walker的老將存在填補受傷主力留下的空缺。

Scoring Dynamics

Early (1-3) 4R 兩位先發在潮濕環境中早期都被安打

Middle (4-6) 4R 當雷暴威脅迫近時後援投手穩定下來

Late (7-9) 2R 可能發生天氣延誤,終結者得到延長時間

Matchup Analysis

Astros

Yordan Alvarez全壘打威脅

最近的進攻激增(7-3 L10)

Christian Walker老將存在

投手陣容殘破

缺少核心球員(Altuve, Correa)

Brewers

優越的後援投手深度

國聯最佳戰績(33-20)

William Contreras熱打(.303)

Coleman Crow大聯盟經驗有限

客場表現(14-9)

Risk Factors

雷暴延誤

休士頓的殘破傷兵名單

Key Matchups

Yordan Alvarez vs Coleman Crow batter 全壘打威力對陣沒經驗的右投

William Contreras vs Kai-Wei Teng batter 熱打者對陣控球掙扎

Christian Yelich vs Kai-Wei Teng batter 老將眼光對陣年輕投手

Statistical Edges

First to Score Brewers 62%

Strikeouts 14 11-17

Total Runs 10 8-12

Game Preview

比賽開始時對休士頓不利,因為Coleman Crow的切球始終找到好球帶,但Christian Yelich在第一局取得保送打,Brice Turang用一支向右的漂亮安打把他送回本壘。Kai-Wei Teng在第二局進入滑球節奏,將密爾瓦基三上三下,然後休士頓反擊。Christian Walker保送上壘,Yordan Alvarez將球打進Crawford Boxes造成兩分全壘打,安靜了被雷暴威脅的觀眾。第三局成為關鍵,William Contreras打出牆上二壘打,Garrett Mitchell用緊要關頭的雙殺後安打將他送回本壘,給密爾瓦基3-2領先,考慮到休士頓的後援投手問題,這個領先看起來更大。Teng開始在潮濕的環境中感到吃力,當他接近五局90球時速度明顯下降。中局兩隊的後援投手接管局面,因為天氣威脅迫使兩位先發者更快被替換。密爾瓦基在第五局時Andrew Vaughn將Turang送回本壘擴大領先,但休士頓不認輸。Jake Meyers在第六局打出關鍵的打點二壘打,Nick Allen隨後的犧牲飛球將比分扳至4-4。晚局變成管理層的棋局比賽,因為雷暴在球場周圍盤旋。密爾瓦基在第八局時Contreras再次擊球,這次是休士頓過度疲勞後援投手的單分全壘打。太空人隊在第九局發動最後的反撲,Alvarez上壘,Walker將他送回本壘迫使延長局,在日益威脅的天空下設置戲劇性的結局。

68%的信心反映了密爾瓦基在投手深度和整體陣容構成方面的明確組織優勢,但休士頓最近的進攻激增和Alvarez的精英產出產生了足夠的不確定性,足以防止更高的信心。天氣延誤也可能會戲劇性地改變後援投手的使用模式。

預計先發投手

Milwaukee Brewers — 陣容

球員	位置	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG
Christian Yelich	DH	.268	4	16	.330	.464
Jackson Chourio	LF	.267	2	7	.320	.411
Brice Turang	2B	.273	7	31	.400	.455
William Contreras	C	.296	4	33	.363	.399
Jake Bauers	1B	.281	8	31	.355	.485
Blake Perkins	CF	.095	0	7	.186	.143
Luis Rengifo	3B	.201	0	14	.266	.253
Sal Frelick	RF	.218	3	18	.288	.300
Joey Ortiz	SS	.195	1	11	.290	.239

Houston Astros — 陣容

球員	位置	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG
Brice Matthews	LF	.204	4	14	.260	.331
Zach Dezenzo	PR	.205	1	2	.271	.364
Yordan Alvarez	DH	.301	20	39	.415	.641
Christian Walker	1B	.254	15	40	.328	.512
Cam Smith	RF	.221	6	21	.312	.358
Jeremy Peña	SS	.253	2	6	.308	.373
Jake Meyers	CF	.215	2	6	.278	.354
Nick Allen	2B	.283	1	5	.333	.370
Christian Vázquez	C	.250	4	17	.314	.398

得分紀錄

▼ 2

Cam Smith homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field.

0-1

▲ 3

David Hamilton homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.

1-1

▼ 4

Cam Smith doubles (8) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Sal Frelick. Yordan Alvarez scores. Christian Walker to 3rd.

1-2

▼ 4

Jake Meyers doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jackson Chourio. Christian Walker scores. Braden Shewmake to 3rd.

1-3

▼ 4

Nick Allen out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Garrett Mitchell. Braden Shewmake scores. Jake Meyers to 3rd.

1-4

▲ 5

Jackson Chourio homers (2) on a fly ball to center field. Christian Yelich scores.

3-4

▲ 8

Jake Bauers grounds out, second baseman Nick Allen to first baseman Christian Walker. Jackson Chourio scores. Brice Turang to 2nd.

4-4

▲ 10

Brice Turang out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Cam Smith. Christian Yelich scores.

5-4

Milwaukee Brewers — 打擊

球員	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	HR	AVG	OPS
Christian YelichDH	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	.268	.794
Jackson ChourioLF	4	2	1	2	1	1	1	.267	.731
Brice Turang2B	2	0	0	1	2	2	0	.273	.855
William ContrerasC	5	0	0	0	0	3	0	.296	.762
Jake Bauers1B	3	0	0	1	1	0	0	.281	.840
Blake PerkinsCF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.095	.329
Luis Rengifo3B	4	0	0	0	0	1	0	.201	.519
Sal FrelickRF	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	.218	.588
Joey OrtizSS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.195	.529
總計	32	5	4	5	6	9	2

BATTING

HR: Hamilton, D (1, 3rd inning off Teng, 0 on, 0 out); Chourio, J (2, 5th inning off Teng, 1 on, 2 out).

TB: Chourio, J 4; Frelick; Hamilton, D 4; Mitchell.

RBI: Bauers (31); Chourio, J 2 (7); Hamilton, D (9); Turang (31).

2-out RBI: Chourio, J 2.

Runners left in scoring position, 2 out: Frelick; Vaughn.

SF: Turang.

Team RISP: 0-for-6.

Team LOB: 6.

BASERUNNING

CS: Mitchell (5, 2nd base by Okert/Salazar).

PO: Mitchell (1st base by Okert).

FIELDING

E: Rengifo (5, throw); Ortiz, J (4, throw).

DP: 2 (Rengifo-Turang-Bauers; Turang-Hamilton, D-Bauers).

a-Flied out for Mitchell in the 8th.

b-Grounded into a forceout for Hamilton, D in the 9th.

1-Ran for Sánchez in the 9th.

Houston Astros — 打擊

球員	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	HR	AVG	OPS
Brice MatthewsLF	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	.204	.591
Zach DezenzoPR	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.205	.635
Yordan AlvarezDH	4	1	0	0	1	2	0	.301	1.056
Christian Walker1B	5	1	1	0	0	1	0	.254	.840
Cam SmithRF	4	1	2	2	1	1	1	.221	.670
Jeremy PeñaSS	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.253	.681
Jake MeyersCF	4	0	2	1	0	0	0	.215	.632
Nick Allen2B	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	.283	.703
Christian VázquezC	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	.250	.712
總計	34	4	6	4	5	9	1

BATTING

2B: Smith (8, Crow); Meyers (3, Crow).

HR: Smith (6, 2nd inning off Crow, 0 on, 1 out).

TB: Meyers 3; Smith 6; Trammell; Walker, C.

RBI: Allen, N (5); Meyers (6); Smith 2 (21).

Runners left in scoring position, 2 out: Smith; Salazar; Paredes 2.

SAC: Allen, N.

SF: Allen, N.

GIDP: Meyers; Paredes.

Team RISP: 2-for-10.

Team LOB: 8.

FIELDING

Pickoffs: Okert (Mitchell at 1st base).

a-Reached on error for Shewmake in the 9th.

b-Intentionally walked for Salazar in the 9th.

1-Ran for Paredes in the 10th.

Milwaukee Brewers — 投球

投手	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA
Coleman Crow	4.0	4	4	2	2	1	1	61-37	3.14
DL Hall	2.0	0	0	0	2	3	0	36-20	2.36
Grant Anderson	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13-8	2.70
Aaron Ashby	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	15-10	2.00
Abner Uribe(W, 3-2)	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	19-14	3.98
Trevor Megill(S, 7)	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	11-8	4.50

Houston Astros — 投球

投手	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA
Kai-Wei Teng	5.0	3	3	3	4	7	2	91-53	2.57
Steven Okert(H, 7)	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	23-12	3.46
Bryan Abreu(H, 5)	0.1	0	1	1	2	0	0	12-2	6.87
Bryan King(BS, 3)	1.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	23-12	2.84
Alimber Santa(L, 0-1)	1.0	0	1	0	0	1	0	11-7	0.00