这场国联中区对阵比赛展现了两支球队相反的发展方向,密尔沃基球队优越的比分差(+45对比圣路易斯的持平)真实反映了情况,尽管两队战绩相近。酿酒人队面临重大伤病困扰,失去了关键进攻手克里斯蒂安·耶利奇和杰克逊·乔里奥,但威廉·孔特雷拉斯(.308)和布赖斯·图兰(.291)表现出色。圣路易斯红雀队则依靠约旦·沃克的爆发性表现(10个本垒打)作为进攻核心,尽管仍缺少拉斯·诺特巴尔这样的老将。投手对阵明显有利于进攻方,因为凯尔·利希的5.52自责分率和1.67WHIP表明在控球和定位上持续存在困难。他最近的速度数据显示稳定在89-90英里,但击球手显然已经适应了他的六种投球配置。乍得·帕特里克是个未知数,MLB数据有限,尽管他的切球为主的投球风格(37.4%)和94+英里的快速球可能会让红雀击球手早期措手不及。密尔沃基的+45比分差反映了尽管阵容受伤情况严重但仍具有优越的进攻一致性,而圣路易斯则表现不稳定,最近的10-5和11-7胜利后接着以1-4输给道奇队就是证明。布什体育场80华氏度的阴天天气和西南向16英里每小时的风力可能有利于右外场的腾空球,可能有利于两队的左打者本垒打。

Scoring Dynamics

Early (1-3) 4R 两位先发投手早期控球困难,有利于击球手

Middle (4-6) 3R 进攻方在中继投手对阵中获利

Late (7-9) 4R 牛棚疲劳导致得分机会

Matchup Analysis

Cardinals

约旦·沃克的全垒打热潮(10个HR)

布什体育场主场优势

最近对海盗队的进攻爆发

凯尔·利希5.52自责分率和控球问题

诺特巴尔仍在伤病名单上削弱阵容深度

Brewers

优越的+45比分差对比圣路易斯持平

威廉·孔特雷拉斯.308打率及关键打点

布赖斯·图兰.291打率和速度优势

广泛的伤病名单包括耶利奇和乔里奥

乍得·帕特里克缺乏既定的MLB记录

Risk Factors

两位先发投手自责分率堪忧

天气条件带来西南向16英里每小时风力

Key Matchups

Jordan Walker vs Chad Patrick batter 沃克的力量对阵未知投手

William Contreras vs Kyle Leahy batter 状态火热的孔特雷拉斯对阵苦难投手

Brice Turang vs Kyle Leahy batter 速度优势对阵高WHIP投手

Statistical Edges

First to Score Cardinals 55%

Strikeouts 16 14-18

Total Runs 11 9-13

Game Preview

首球在阴天天气下投出,约旦·沃克期待继续他对阵未知投手乍得·帕特里克的全垒打表演。沃克快速击球,击出一个2-1的切球越过右外场围墙,让圣路易斯队快速取得1-0领先。帕特里克在早期的震动后找到状态,但密尔沃基在第二局反击,威廉·孔特雷拉斯对凯尔·利希的投球取得保送出局,跑动到布赖斯·图兰的单打,最终在加勒特·米切尔的牺牲打上得分。第三局成为关键时刻,利希的控球问题重新出现——何塞·费尔明向左中外场打出二垒打,沃克用另一支带分打击送他回本垒,JJ·韦瑟霍尔打出本赛季第八个全垒打,红雀队以4-1领先。密尔沃基拒绝认输,图兰在第四局以内野滚地球率先出击,盗得二垒,最终在孔特雷拉斯的打点二垒打上得分。米切尔随后送出关键的两分单打,使比分打成4-4平手。两位先发投手在第六局前下场,比赛演变成牛棚战。密尔沃基在第七局通过替补击手萨尔·弗雷利克对红雀中继投手的带分单打取得领先。圣路易斯在第八局反击,沃克继续他的英勇表现,打出带分二垒打,将比分打成5-5平手。决胜的第九局,密尔沃基的图兰第四次上垒,在一个暴投上推进,最后在孔特雷拉斯的另一个关键打击上得分。米切尔用牺牲打保险得分,而密尔沃基的終場救援投手封锁圣路易斯3人不得分,以6-5的比分赢得这场激烈的胜利。

68%的信心水平反映了密尔沃基优越的基础指标(+45比分差对比持平)和尽管伤病严重但仍保持的进攻深度,权衡了乍得·帕特里克MLB准备就绪的不确定性以及两队投手脆弱性所创造的多重得分场景。

预计先发投手

Milwaukee Brewers — 阵容

球员	位置	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG
Garrett Mitchell	CF	.219	1	21	.364	.333
Jackson Chourio	LF	1.000	0	0	1.000	1.500
Brice Turang	2B	.304	5	22	.434	.522
William Contreras	C	.295	3	23	.364	.419
Tyler Black	1B	.409	0	7	.435	.591
Andrew Vaughn	DH	.125	0	1	.222	.125
Sal Frelick	RF	.212	3	9	.311	.317
Luis Rengifo	3B	.188	0	11	.252	.267
David Hamilton	SS	.235	0	7	.337	.259

St. Louis Cardinals — 阵容

球员	位置	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG
JJ Wetherholt	2B	.246	7	18	.360	.440
Iván Herrera	DH	.256	4	17	.416	.424
Alec Burleson	1B	.269	5	28	.349	.448
Jordan Walker	RF	.308	10	27	.377	.585
Nolan Gorman	3B	.224	5	21	.285	.379
Masyn Winn	SS	.274	1	14	.357	.372
Nathan Church	LF	.248	5	16	.278	.436
Pedro Pagés	C	.237	3	8	.289	.395
Victor Scott II	CF	.184	1	5	.250	.241

得分记录

▼ 2

JJ Wetherholt singles on a line drive to center fielder Garrett Mitchell. Masyn Winn scores. Victor Scott II to 3rd.

0-1

▼ 4

Iván Herrera doubles (9) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Garrett Mitchell. Nathan Church scores. Pedro Pagés scores. JJ Wetherholt scores.

0-4

▲ 6

Luis Rengifo singles on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Nathan Church. Jake Bauers scores. Sal Frelick to 2nd.

1-4

▼ 7

Masyn Winn singles on a ground ball to right fielder Sal Frelick. Jordan Walker scores. Nolan Gorman out at 3rd on the throw, right fielder Sal Frelick to shortstop David Hamilton.

1-5

▼ 8

JJ Wetherholt singles on a line drive to center fielder Garrett Mitchell. Victor Scott II scores.

1-6

▲ 9

Brice Turang homers (5) on a fly ball to center field. Jackson Chourio scores.

3-6

Milwaukee Brewers — 打击

球员	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	HR	AVG	OPS
Garrett MitchellCF	5	0	0	0	0	1	0	.219	.697
Jackson ChourioLF	4	1	4	0	1	0	0	1.000	2.500
Brice Turang2B	5	1	3	2	0	1	1	.304	.956
William ContrerasC	5	0	1	0	0	0	0	.295	.783
Tyler Black1B	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.409	1.026
Andrew VaughnDH	4	0	0	0	0	1	0	.125	.347
Sal FrelickRF	3	0	1	0	1	0	0	.212	.628
Luis Rengifo3B	4	0	1	1	0	1	0	.188	.519
David HamiltonSS	4	0	0	0	0	2	0	.235	.596
总计	37	3	11	3	4	7	1

BATTING

2B: Chourio, Jac 2 (2, Leahy, Graceffo); Bauers (6, Leahy).

HR: Turang (5, 9th inning off Graceffo, 1 on, 1 out).

TB: Bauers 2; Chourio, Jac 6; Contreras, Wm; Frelick; Rengifo; Turang 6.

RBI: Rengifo (11); Turang 2 (22).

Runners left in scoring position, 2 out: Mitchell; Rengifo 2; Contreras, Wm 2; Vaughn 2.

GIDP: Contreras, Wm.

Team RISP: 2-for-12.

Team LOB: 12.

FIELDING

E: Turang (2, fielding).

Outfield assists: Frelick (Gorman at 3rd base).

a-Walked for Bauers in the 7th.

1-Ran for Sánchez in the 7th.

St. Louis Cardinals — 打击

球员	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt2B	4	1	2	2	1	0	.246	.800
Iván HerreraDH	5	0	2	3	0	2	.256	.840
Alec Burleson1B	5	0	0	0	0	3	.269	.797
Jordan WalkerRF	3	1	1	0	1	2	.308	.962
Nolan Gorman3B	4	0	2	0	0	0	.224	.664
Masyn WinnSS	3	1	1	1	1	0	.274	.729
Nathan ChurchLF	4	1	1	0	0	0	.248	.714
Pedro PagésC	3	1	0	0	1	2	.237	.684
Victor Scott IICF	3	1	2	0	0	0	.184	.491
总计	34	6	11	6	4	9

BATTING

2B: Gorman (3, Patrick); Church (4, Patrick); Herrera (9, Patrick); Scott II (2, Woodford).

TB: Church 2; Gorman 3; Herrera 3; Scott II 3; Walker, J; Wetherholt 2; Winn.

RBI: Herrera 3 (17); Wetherholt 2 (18); Winn (14).

2-out RBI: Wetherholt.

Runners left in scoring position, 2 out: Walker, J; Pagés, P; Gorman; Winn; Herrera.

SAC: Scott II.

Team RISP: 4-for-10.

Team LOB: 9.

FIELDING

DP: (Winn-Burleson).

Milwaukee Brewers — 投球

投手	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC-ST	ERA
Chad Patrick(L, 2-2)	3.1	7	4	4	3	4	64-38	3.45
DL Hall	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	24-19	1.69
Shane Drohan	1.1	1	1	1	1	1	23-14	4.15
Grant Anderson	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	9-6	3.18
Jake Woodford	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	25-16	4.41

St. Louis Cardinals — 投球

投手	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA
Kyle Leahy(W, 4-3)	5.1	6	1	1	2	5	0	94-56	4.93
George Soriano(H, 5)	0.2	1	0	0	1	1	0	18-9	3.52
JoJo Romero(H, 10)	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	0	16-8	3.71
Ryne Stanek	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	7-6	7.20
Gordon Graceffo	0.1	3	2	2	0	0	1	11-7	1.93
Riley O'Brien(S, 10)	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	3-3	2.12