New York Mets vs Washington Nationals — Mar 21, 2026 | AI Prediction & Stats

The Nationals send right-hander Josiah Gray to the mound, while the Mets counter with Kodai Senga. Gray has struggled to keep the ball in the park this spring, and that matches up poorly against a Mets lineup that leads the league in hard-hit rate. Senga’s splitter remains elite, and Washington’s left-heavy order has looked vulnerable to quality off-speed offerings. New York jumps ahead in the first when Francisco Lindor lines an RBI double. Gray settles in but unravels in the fourth: Pete Alonso crushes a two-run homer after a Jeff McNeil single, giving the Mets a 3-1 edge. Senga scatters soft contact through five; the lone blemish is CJ Abrams’ RBI single in the third. The Nationals chip away in the sixth when Keibert Ruiz laces a double off reliever Brooks Raley, trimming the deficit to 3-2, but the Mets’ deep bullpen—especially Drew Smith and Edwin Díaz—shuts the door from there. In the seventh, Starling Marte manufactures an insurance run with a walk, stolen base, and Brandon Nimmo’s single against Hunter Harvey. Edwin Díaz takes the mound in the ninth with a 4-2 cushion. The Mets tack on another run in the top half when rookie catcher Kevin Parada lifts a sacrifice fly. Díaz concedes a solo blast to Lane Thomas but strikes out Abrams to seal a 5-3 victory. Key factors: (1) Senga’s swing-and-miss arsenal; (2) the Mets’ superior run differential translating into late-inning confidence; (3) Washington’s middle relief, which has been their weakest unit in camp, again surrendering momentum. Expect the Mets to even their record at 13-12, while the Nationals slip back to .500.