San Diego Padres vs Boston Red Sox — Apr 4, 2026 | AI Prediction & Stats

Expect a crisp, fast-paced matchup built around two young starters who are both throwing the ball well. Connelly Early’s lively left-handed fastball/slider combination has produced a 2.33 ERA and a stingy 1.09 WHIP; his ability to change eye levels should keep Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado from driving the ball in the air early. Randy Vásquez counters for San Diego with a heavy sinker that generates grounders, but his modest strikeout rate leaves him vulnerable to Boston’s left-handed thunder in the middle innings. • 2nd inning – Wilyer Abreu stays scorching, ambushing a first-pitch cutter and lining it into the seats in right for a solo shot. • 3rd inning – Jackson Merrill flips an RBI single the other way after a Tatis stolen base, tying things briefly. • 4th inning – Boston stacks lefties; Jarren Duran slices a triple into the triangle and Roman Anthony plates him with a sac fly, then Marcelo Mayer yanks a two-out double past first to chase home another run before Vásquez escapes. • 6th inning – Padres scratch back when Ramón Laureano takes advantage of Early’s third-time-through fatigue, drilling a hanging breaker for an RBI double. Alex Cora quickly hooks his starter and leans on the pen. • 7th inning – The bullpens trade blows. Gavin Sheets greets Greg Weissert with a flare RBI single to pull San Diego within one, but in the bottom half Abreu draws a walk off Wandy Peralta, steals second, and scores on Trevor Story’s line-drive single. • 8th inning – Boston manufactures an insurance run against Adrian Morejon: Ceddanne Rafaela bunts for a hit, swipes second, and comes home on Anthony’s opposite-field knock. • 9th inning – Aroldis Chapman slams the door with 102 mph heat, striking out two for the save. Key edges tilt toward Boston: a left-handed starter neutralizing San Diego’s right-handed power core, a resurgent Abreu anchoring the offense, and a rested back-end duo of Jovani Morán and Chapman ready for the final six outs. Padres’ pen depth keeps it close, but the Red Sox capitalize on Fenway’s short right field and eke out a 5-3 victory.