Boston enters this matchup riding a remarkable 13-game win streak — the hottest team in baseball right now. The Red Sox have transformed from a 37-48 afterthought on July 2nd into a genuine contender, outscoring opponents by +45 on the season. Payton Tolle is the ideal arm to keep this going: his 2.78 ERA and 1.02 WHIP represent a legitimately elite season, and his fastball-sinker combination averaging 95-96 mph gives Baltimore's middling lineup significant trouble. Tolle has made three recent starts in the 66-91 pitch range, suggesting he's being managed carefully, but his stuff remains sharp. Shane Baz presents a concerning profile for the Orioles. His 4.19 ERA and 1.39 WHIP reflect genuine command volatility — 3.39 BB/9 is a recipe for trouble at hitter-friendly Fenway Park. His knuckle-curve is his best weapon, but Boston's patient lineup can work counts and force early exits. Baltimore has been winning games by outscoring opponents through strong bullpens anchored by Garcia (2.57 ERA) and Wells (2.89 ERA), but the loss of Ryan Helsley — their most dominant late-inning arm — removes a crucial piece from their late-game arsenal. Fenway's dimensions favor power hitters, and Wilyer Abreu (15 HR) and Caleb Durbin (9 HR) can do damage if Baz's control wobbles. Baltimore's Samuel Basallo counters with 16 home runs, but Tolle's heavy ground-ball profile limits damage. Boston's home record (21-27) is the one nagging concern — Fenway hasn't been kind to them — but a 13-game streak overrides ballpark splits as a momentum indicator. Bothteams carry lengthy IL lists, with Boston missing Crochet, Houck, Crawford, and Casas among key contributors. Baltimore is without Bassitt, Eflin, Westburg, and Mountcastle. Depth is thin on both sides.

Scoring Dynamics

Early (1-3) 2R Tolle settles in, Baz walks tightrope early

Middle (4-6) 3R Red Sox leverage Baz's command issues

Late (7-9) 3R Bullpens take over, runs trickle in

Matchup Analysis

Red Sox

13-game win streak momentum

Tolle's elite 2.78 ERA

Dominant home run differential

Brutal home record 21-27

Thin rotation depth on IL

Orioles

Orioles on 7-game win streak

Samuel Basallo power threat

Garcia/Wells bullpen anchors

Baz's 4.19 ERA and 1.39 WHIP

Poor away record 21-26

Risk Factors

Both teams on long win streaks

Helsley loss weakens BAL late-game options

Key Matchups

Basallo, Samuel vs Payton Tolle pitcher Tolle's heavy sinker/fastball combo neutralizes pull-heavy hitters

Abreu, Wilyer vs Shane Baz batter Baz's elevated BB/9 creates baserunners for Abreu's gap power

Ward, Taylor vs Payton Tolle pitcher Tolle's cutter freezes right-handed hitters at Fenway

Statistical Edges

First to Score Red Sox 58%

Strikeouts 15 12-18

Total Runs 8 6-11

Game Preview

The scene is set at Fenway Park on a warm July evening with a gentle SSE breeze — conditions that don't dramatically favor either hitters or pitchers. Payton Tolle takes the bump for Boston, sharp and confident on five days' rest, his four-seamer humming at 96 mph as he retires Leody Taveras and Jeremiah Jackson in the first. The Red Sox answer quickly when Wilyer Abreu works a leadoff walk in the bottom of the first and scores on a Connor Wong single, putting Boston ahead 1-0 before Baltimore's dugout can settle in. Shane Baz battles his command through the early innings, falling behind hitters and leaking walks. By the third, Boston exploits a two-out rally — Durbin lines a double into the right-field corner, and Abreu drives him in with an opposite-field single to extend the lead to 2-1. Baz limits the damage but exits after five innings having thrown over 90 pitches, handing off to the Baltimore bullpen with a 3-2 deficit. Tolle navigates six quality innings, allowing three runs on scattered hits and a solo Basallo home run to left-center in the fourth — Basallo's gap power proving real even against premium velocity. The Boston bullpen slams the door from there, with the Red Sox tacking on insurance in the sixth and eighth. Baltimore threatens in the seventh when Taylor Ward's double brings home a run off a Boston reliever, but Garcia and Wells keep it competitive without being able to claw back the deficit. Boston wins 5-3, extending its win streak to 14.

Both teams are on multi-game win streaks, adding uncertainty. Tolle's significant ERA/WHIP edge over Baz and Boston's 13-game momentum lean home, but Baltimore's surging form and Fenway's poor home record cap confidence at 62.

Probable Pitchers

Baltimore Orioles — Roster

Player	Pos	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG
Taylor Ward	LF	.251	7	27	.386	.361
Pete Alonso	1B	.246	21	66	.347	.460
Gunnar Henderson	SS	.224	17	44	.293	.402
Tyler O'Neill	RF	.205	6	15	.297	.360
Dylan Beavers	DH	.243	2	14	.327	.364
Leody Taveras	CF	.240	4	37	.320	.363
Jeremiah Jackson	2B	.252	7	37	.271	.400
Jackson Holliday	3B	.205	5	15	.322	.362
Colton Cowser	PH	.209	8	27	.302	.336

Boston Red Sox — Roster

Player	Pos	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG
Anthony Seigler	2B	.244	2	7	.317	.389
Ceddanne Rafaela	CF	.281	8	42	.326	.433
Wilyer Abreu	RF	.267	15	50	.339	.461
Willson Contreras	1B	.289	22	66	.384	.557
Masataka Yoshida	DH	.267	4	18	.341	.398
Caleb Durbin	3B	.236	10	42	.299	.400
Jarren Duran	LF	.191	13	49	.254	.340
Connor Wong	C	.277	1	15	.374	.370
Tsung-Che Cheng	SS	.278	0	5	.341	.306

Scoring Plays

▲ 1

Tyler O'Neill hits a ground-rule double (7) on a line drive down the right-field line. Gunnar Henderson scores.

1-0

▼ 2

Jarren Duran out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Leody Taveras. Willson Contreras scores.

1-1

▼ 3

Wilyer Abreu doubles (21) on a line drive to center fielder Leody Taveras. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. Wilyer Abreu to 3rd. Wilyer Abreu advances to 3rd, on a throwing error by shortstop Gunnar Henderson.

1-2

▼ 3

Willson Contreras singles on a line drive to second baseman Jeremiah Jackson, deflected by shortstop Gunnar Henderson. Wilyer Abreu scores.

1-3

▲ 5

Christian Encarnacion-Strand homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.

2-3

▲ 6

Jeremiah Jackson singles on a line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Tyler O'Neill scores. Leody Taveras to 3rd.

3-3

▲ 6

Christian Encarnacion-Strand singles on a ground ball to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela, deflected by second baseman Anthony Seigler. Leody Taveras scores. Jeremiah Jackson to 3rd.

4-3

▼ 6

Willson Contreras doubles (17) on a line drive to left fielder Taylor Ward. Wilyer Abreu scores.

4-4

▲ 7

Tyler O'Neill grounds out, second baseman Anthony Seigler to first baseman Willson Contreras. Taylor Ward scores. Pete Alonso to 2nd.

5-4

▼ 7

Ceddanne Rafaela singles on a ground ball to left fielder Taylor Ward. Tsung-Che Cheng scores. Ceddanne Rafaela to 2nd. Ceddanne Rafaela advances to 2nd, on a throwing error by left fielder Taylor Ward.

5-5

▼ 8

Caleb Durbin homers (10) on a fly ball to left center field.

5-6

Baltimore Orioles — Batting

Player	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	HR	AVG	OPS
Taylor WardLF	5	1	1	0	0	1	0	.251	.747
Pete Alonso1B	4	0	1	0	0	2	0	.246	.807
Gunnar HendersonSS	5	1	3	0	0	1	0	.224	.695
Tyler O'NeillRF	5	1	2	2	0	0	0	.205	.657
Dylan BeaversDH	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	.243	.691
Leody TaverasCF	3	1	1	0	1	2	0	.240	.683
Jeremiah Jackson2B	4	0	1	1	0	1	0	.252	.671
Jackson Holliday3B	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.205	.684
Colton CowserPH	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	.209	.638
Totals	37	5	11	5	2	15	1

BATTING

2B: Henderson 3 (19, Tolle, Tolle, Chapman); O'Neill (7, Tolle); Ward, T (20, Guerrero).

HR: Encarnacion-Strand (1, 5th inning off Tolle, 0 on, 0 out).

TB: Alonso; Encarnacion-Strand 5; Henderson 6; Jackson, J; O'Neill 3; Taveras, L; Ward, T 2.

RBI: Encarnacion-Strand 2 (2); Jackson, J (37); O'Neill 2 (15).

2-out RBI: O'Neill; Encarnacion-Strand; Jackson, J.

Runners left in scoring position, 2 out: Mayo; O'Neill 3; Huff; Beavers.

Team RISP: 4-for-11.

Team LOB: 8.

BASERUNNING

CS: Alonso (1, 2nd base by Tolle/Wong).

FIELDING

E: Jackson, J (7, throw); Henderson (12, throw); Baz (1, throw); Ward, T (2, throw).

DP: (Alonso-Henderson-Baz).

a-Struck out for Mayo in the 7th.

b-Grounded out for Encarnacion-Strand in the 8th.

c-Walked for Huff in the 9th.

Boston Red Sox — Batting

Player	AB	R	H	RBI	K	HR	AVG	OPS
Anthony Seigler2B	4	0	0	0	0	0	.244	.706
Ceddanne RafaelaCF	4	1	1	1	2	0	.281	.759
Wilyer AbreuRF	4	2	2	1	1	0	.267	.800
Willson Contreras1B	4	1	3	2	1	0	.289	.941
Masataka YoshidaDH	4	0	1	0	1	0	.267	.739
Caleb Durbin3B	4	1	1	1	0	1	.236	.699
Jarren DuranLF	3	0	1	1	1	0	.191	.594
Connor WongC	3	0	1	0	1	0	.277	.744
Tsung-Che ChengSS	3	1	0	0	2	0	.278	.647
Totals	33	6	10	6	9	1

BATTING

2B: Abreu, W (21, Baz); Contreras, Wn (17, Baz).

HR: Durbin (10, 8th inning off Wells, T, 0 on, 2 out).

TB: Abreu, W 3; Contreras, Wn 4; Duran, Ja; Durbin 4; Rafaela; Wong; Yoshida.

RBI: Abreu, W (50); Contreras, Wn 2 (66); Duran, Ja (49); Durbin (42); Rafaela (42).

2-out RBI: Contreras, Wn; Abreu, W; Durbin; Rafaela.

Runners left in scoring position, 2 out: Duran, Ja; Abreu, W.

SF: Duran, Ja.

GIDP: Wong.

Team RISP: 3-for-8.

Team LOB: 4.

Baltimore Orioles — Pitching

Pitcher	IP	H	R	ER	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA
Shane Baz	6.0	7	4	2	6	0	77-58	4.13
Yennier Cano(BS, 2)	0.2	2	1	1	0	0	10-7	2.48
Tyler Wells(L, 2-2)	1.1	1	1	1	3	1	21-15	3.00

Boston Red Sox — Pitching

Pitcher	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA
Payton Tolle	5.2	8	4	4	1	9	1	88-64	3.31
Tyron Guerrero	1.1	2	1	1	0	3	0	19-16	2.49
Garrett Whitlock(W, 5-1)	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	11-9	2.00
Aroldis Chapman(S, 22)	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	0	22-16	1.99

Game Info

Umpires: Home Plate: Stu Scheurwater; First Base: Jordan Baker; Second Base: Felix Neon; Third Base: Rob Drake

Venue: Fenway Park, Boston

Weather: 79°F, Clear

Wind: 9 mph, Out To CF

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Adley Rutschman

Rudy Martin Jr.

Baltimore Orioles

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Ryan Helsley

Sam Huff

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Sonny Gray

Tampa Bay Rays

Baltimore Orioles

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Christian Walker

Baltimore Orioles

Houston Astros

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Kyle Bradish

Baltimore Orioles

Boston Red Sox — News

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Drake Baldwin

Hunter Goodman

Boston Red Sox

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Jacob Misiorowski

Miami Marlins

Milwaukee Brewers

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Sonny Gray

Boston Red Sox

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Sonny Gray

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Danny Coulombe

Boston Red Sox