Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs — Apr 10, 2026 | AI Prediction & Stats

Shota Imanaga’s elite command and sub-1.00 career WHIP match up well against a Pirates lineup that is top-heavy but still striking out at an elevated clip. Expect him to lean on the fastball/cutter mix to keep Oneil Cruz and Ryan O’Hearn—Pittsburgh’s two hottest bats—off balance early, limiting the damage to a solo shot in the third. Carmen Mlodzinski has shown flashes, yet his 1.56 WHIP and recurring traffic in the first trip through the order set the stage for the Cubs to jump ahead quickly; look for Nico Hoerner to ignite a first-inning run with his league-leading on-base streak. The decisive frame should be the fourth: Chicago’s left-right balance (Happ, Bregman, Swanson) forces Mlodzinski into deep counts, and a two-run double from Ian Happ chases him before he can qualify for a win. Pittsburgh’s middle-inning response is muted—Imanaga’s second-time through numbers remain strong, and the Cubs’ bridge arms (Assad, Thielbar) have yet to allow an earned run this season. In the late innings, David Ross can deploy Daniel Palencia’s upper-90s sinker and Hoby Milner’s left-on-left advantage, neutralizing O’Hearn in the seventh. Although Phil Maton has been shaky, the Cubs’ pen depth allows Ross to bypass him for Colin Rea in the eighth, and Chicago tacks on an insurance run when Pete Crow-Armstrong drops a bunt single and steals second ahead of Hoerner’s line-drive RBI. Gregory Soto’s ninth-inning velocity makes things interesting—Bryan Reynolds works a walk and eventually scores on a two-out single—but Rea closes the door, preserving a 5-3 Cubs victory. Overall, the combination of recent head-to-head dominance, a favorable pitching matchup, and home-field conditions tips the balance toward Chicago.