Back to Games Saturday, May 23, 2026

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds — May 23, 2026 | AI Prediction & Stats

St. Louis Cardinals 31-28
Final
DH 1/2
↺ Rescheduled from May 22
8 : 1
Cincinnati Reds 31-29
Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati
71°F, Cloudy
10 mph, R To L
W Andre Pallante L Chris Paddack

Scoreboard

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
Cardinals 0 0 2 1 0 0 2 1 2 8 12 0
Reds 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1

AI PREDICTIONNeural Network Forecast

AI
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R
Cardinals 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 4
Reds 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 0 1 5
Confidence: 62% Reds favored
This makeup game from Thursday's rainout presents an intriguing pitching matchup with contrasting narratives. Chris Paddack enters with a bloated 7.07 ERA and 0-4 record, having struggled mightily with command and velocity drops from his recent starts. His fastball has averaged just 87.6 mph in recent outings, down from previous seasons, while his 1.54 WHIP indicates persistent baserunner issues. Meanwhile, Andre Pallante brings a more respectable 4.04 ERA despite some control concerns (3.49 BB/9), but his recent velocity readings of 94.9 mph on the fastball and sharp slider usage give him a clear stuff advantage in today's conditions. The Cardinals' road success (15-8) contrasts sharply with Cincinnati's home struggles, though the Reds have shown offensive life recently with back-to-back strong performances against Philadelphia. Elly De La Cruz remains the x-factor with 11 home runs already, while Jordan Walker's 13 homers pace St. Louis's attack. Both bullpens face questions - Cincinnati's is decimated by injuries to Caleb Ferguson, Emilio Pagán, and others, while St. Louis may feel fatigue from the disrupted schedule. The weather conditions could favor contact over strikeouts, potentially benefiting Cincinnati's more aggressive approach. The split doubleheader format means fresh lineups, but both rotations are pushed back a day, creating subtle adjustments in preparation and timing that could influence early innings.

Scoring Dynamics

Early (1-3) 3R Both struggling starters vulnerable early, Cardinals strike first
Middle (4-6) 5R Offensive surge as pitch counts climb and middle relief enters
Late (7-9) 1R Bullpens settle in, Reds manufacture late winning run

Matchup Analysis

Reds

Home field advantage in day game
Recent offensive surge (9-4, 4-1 wins)
Elly De La Cruz power threat (11 HR, 32 RBI)
Chris Paddack's 7.07 ERA struggles
Depleted bullpen with three relievers on IL

Cardinals

Better road record (15-8)
Andre Pallante's superior ERA (4.04)
Jordan Walker's consistent production (13 HR, 35 RBI)
Recent offensive slump (2 runs in last 2 games)
Bullpen fatigue from makeup game scheduling

Risk Factors

Heavy drizzle affecting grip and command
Makeup game disrupts both teams' routines

Key Matchups

Elly De La Cruz vs Andre Pallante batter Power vs finesse, De La Cruz thrives on Pallante's slider location
Jordan Walker vs Chris Paddack batter Walker's .295 average vs Paddack's command issues
JJ Bleday vs Andre Pallante batter Bleday's .299 average suggests good timing against Cardinals pitching

Statistical Edges

First to Score Cardinals 58%
Strikeouts 14 11-17
Total Runs 9 7-11

Game Preview

Game 1 of this split doubleheader begins under heavy drizzle at Great American Ball Park, with both teams adjusting to the makeup game atmosphere. Andre Pallante takes the mound first and immediately benefits from the conditions, as his slider grips better in the moisture. Jordan Walker leads off the second inning with a sharp single to right, and after a wild pitch from the struggling Chris Paddack, Walker advances to second. Victor Scott II drives him home with a two-out single, giving St. Louis an early 1-0 advantage. The Reds respond quickly in the bottom of the second when JJ Bleday doubles off the wall in left-center, then scores on Matt McLain's ground-ball single through the right side. Cincinnati breaks through for two runs in the fourth inning as Elly De La Cruz launches Pallante's hanging slider over the left field wall for his 12th homer, followed by consecutive singles and a sacrifice fly. The Cardinals answer immediately in the fifth when Pallante helps his own cause with an RBI single, then JJ Wetherholt adds a two-run double down the line to reclaim the lead 4-3. The game enters the late innings as a classic National League Central slugfest, with both bullpens working carefully in the drizzle. Cincinnati manufactures the tying run in the sixth on a walk, stolen base, and McLain's clutch RBI single. The decisive moment comes in the ninth inning when De La Cruz reaches on an infield single, steals second base with his blazing speed, and scores the winning run on Nathaniel Lowe's opposite-field single to right. The Reds walk off 5-4, taking game one of the split doubleheader as the Great American Ball Park crowd celebrates through the persistent drizzle.
The confidence level reflects the significant pitching disparity favoring St. Louis, but Cincinnati's recent offensive surge and home field advantage create enough uncertainty to prevent higher confidence. Weather conditions add an unpredictable element to both teams' approach.
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St. Louis Cardinals — Roster

PlayerPosAVGHRRBIOBPSLG
JJ Wetherholt
2B .238925.357.407
Iván Herrera
C .269625.395.441
Alec Burleson
1B .295735.364.468
Jordan Walker
RF .2931438.362.569
Nolan Gorman
DH .222625.310.358
Masyn Winn
SS .245117.330.337
Bryan Torres
LF .50012.6001.250
César Prieto
3B .00000.000.000
Victor Scott II
CF .20327.261.276

Cincinnati Reds — Roster

PlayerPosAVGHRRBIOBPSLG
JJ Bleday
LF .288620.396.613
Elly De La Cruz
SS .2841132.350.515
Sal Stewart
DH .2591234.347.492
Nathaniel Lowe
1B .259721.328.528
Eugenio Suárez
3B .226311.301.355
Spencer Steer
2B .270718.340.443
Blake Dunn
RF .35511.412.581
Tyler Stephenson
C .179313.285.285
TJ Friedl
CF .17728.256.259

Scoring Plays

2
Nathaniel Lowe homers (7) on a fly ball to right field.
0-1
3
Alec Burleson singles on a ground ball to center fielder Dane Myers, deflected by shortstop Elly De La Cruz. JJ Wetherholt scores. Iván Herrera to 3rd.
1-1
3
Jordan Walker grounds into a force out, shortstop Elly De La Cruz to second baseman Spencer Steer. Iván Herrera scores. Alec Burleson out at 2nd. Jordan Walker to 1st.
2-1
4
JJ Wetherholt singles on a line drive to second baseman Spencer Steer, deflected by first baseman Nathaniel Lowe. Masyn Winn scores. Bryan Torres to 3rd. Victor Scott II to 2nd.
3-1
7
Jordan Walker homers (14) on a line drive to right center field. Iván Herrera scores.
5-1
8
Iván Herrera triples (1) on a fly ball to right fielder Blake Dunn, deflected by center fielder Dane Myers. Victor Scott II scores.
6-1
9
Bryan Torres homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field. Masyn Winn scores.
8-1

St. Louis Cardinals — Batting

PlayerABRHRBIBBKHRAVGOPS
JJ Wetherholt2B
5111110.238.764
Iván HerreraC
3221200.269.836
Alec Burleson1B
4021100.295.832
Jordan WalkerRF
5113011.293.931
Nolan GormanDH
4000110.222.668
Masyn WinnSS
4210120.245.667
Bryan TorresLF
4122101.5001.850
César Prieto3B
5000010.000.000
Victor Scott IICF
4130110.203.537
Totals388128872
BATTING
3B: Herrera (1, Franco, J).
HR: Walker, J (14, 7th inning off Phillips, 1 on, 1 out); Torres, B (1, 9th inning off Franco, J, 1 on, 1 out).
TB: Burleson 2; Herrera 4; Scott II 3; Torres, B 5; Walker, J 4; Wetherholt; Winn.
RBI: Burleson (35); Herrera (25); Torres, B 2 (2); Walker, J 3 (38); Wetherholt (25).
2-out RBI: Herrera.
Runners left in scoring position, 2 out: Walker, J; Wetherholt.
GIDP: Herrera.
Team RISP: 4-for-10.
Team LOB: 11.
BASERUNNING
SB: Scott II (7, 2nd base off Moll/Stephenson, T); Herrera (2, 2nd base off Phillips/Stephenson, T).
FIELDING
DP: (Wetherholt-Winn-Burleson).

Cincinnati Reds — Batting

PlayerABRHRBIBBKHRAVGOPS
JJ BledayLF
3000100.2881.009
Elly De La CruzSS
4000000.284.865
Sal StewartDH
4000030.259.839
Nathaniel Lowe1B
4111011.259.856
Eugenio Suárez3B
2000100.226.656
Spencer Steer2B
2000100.270.783
Blake DunnRF
3010010.355.993
Tyler StephensonC
3000010.179.570
TJ FriedlCF
1000000.177.515
Totals28121361
BATTING
HR: Lowe, N (7, 2nd inning off Pallante, 0 on, 0 out).
TB: Dunn; Lowe, N 4.
RBI: Lowe, N (21).
GIDP: Stephenson, T.
Team RISP: 0-for-1.
Team LOB: 3.
FIELDING
E: Stephenson, T (1, throw).
DP: (Paddack-Stephenson, T-Lowe, N).
a-Grounded out for Myers in the 8th.

St. Louis Cardinals — Pitching

PitcherIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERA
Andre Pallante(W, 5-4)
6.021113193-603.76
Ryne Stanek
1.000011019-136.00
George Soriano
1.00000008-63.32
Matt Svanson
1.000012014-88.77

Cincinnati Reds — Pitching

PitcherIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERA
Chris Paddack(L, 0-6)
5.073335084-526.86
Sam Moll
1.010000010-52.86
Connor Phillips
1.012221128-155.53
Jose Franco
2.033331154-295.40

Game Info

Umpires: Home Plate: Ben May; First Base: Jacob Metz; Second Base: Chris Conroy; Third Base: Brennan Miller
Venue: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati
Weather: 71°F, Cloudy
Wind: 10 mph, R To L

Cincinnati Reds — News

Season Comparison

Cardinals
STAT
Reds
31-28 Record 31-29
52.5% Win % 51.7%
.525 PCT .517
252 Runs For 262
266 Runs Against 300
59 Games Played 60
L2 Streak W1
3-7 Last 10 5-5
15-16 Home Record 16-15
16-12 Away Record 15-14

Head to Head

0
Last 1 meetings
1
May 23
Cardinals 6 - 7 Reds

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