Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins — Apr 13, 2026 | AI Prediction & Stats

Garrett Crochet gives Boston a clear edge on the mound. His fastball/slider mix has been dominant early and should neutralize Minnesota’s left-handed power bats (Wallner, Larnach, Bell) the first time through. Look for Crochet to cruise through six innings with modest traffic, surrendering solo runs in the 2nd and 6th before handing a two-run cushion to a rested late-inning trio of Whitlock, Moran and Chapman. Bailey Ober’s elevated fly-ball rate and early-season command wobble set up favorably for the Red Sox. Wilyer Abreu’s hot bat and Roman Anthony’s patience project to stress Ober immediately; a first-inning Abreu homer and a third-inning two-out RBI knock by Contreras put Boston in front. Ober settles briefly, but back-to-back doubles by Mayer and Story in the 5th chase him and add a pair. Boston tacks on an insurance run in the 7th when Rafaela legs out an infield hit, steals second and scores on Anthony’s single against the bullpen. Minnesota chips away: Austin Martin manufactures a run with speed in the 2nd, Josh Bell ambushes a Crochet changeup in the 6th, and a ninth-inning rally against Chapman forces the closer to strand the tying run at first. Still, the Twins’ middle relief can’t erase Ober’s deficit, and Boston’s pen slams the door. Key factors tipping the game to Boston: • Pitching disparity – Crochet’s swing-and-miss stuff vs. Ober’s contact profile. • Left-on-left matchups favor Crochet against Minnesota’s run producers. • Boston’s emerging top-of-the-order (Abreu, Anthony, Contreras) exploiting Target Field’s short right-field porch. • Superior late-game bullpen alignment for the Red Sox. Final outlook: Boston 5, Minnesota 3, with the visitors riding their ace and timely gap power to a series-opening victory.