Back to Games Sunday, May 17, 2026

Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays — May 17, 2026 | AI Prediction & Stats

Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg
72°F, Dome
0 mph, None
W Drew Rasmussen L Eury Pérez SV Bryan Baker

Scoreboard

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
Marlins 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 11 1
Rays 1 0 0 3 1 1 0 0 - 6 7 0

AI PREDICTIONNeural Network Forecast

AI
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R
Marlins 1 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 2 6
Rays 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 1 0 5
Confidence: 72% Marlins favored
This AL East vs NL East interleague matchup features two teams heading in opposite directions. Tampa Bay enters with the best record in baseball at 29-15 but is smarting from yesterday's 10-5 shellacking at home. Drew Rasmussen takes the mound with excellent control numbers (0.91 WHIP, 1.48 BB/9) and should provide stability after the Rays' pitching staff was torched. However, the Rays' rotation depth remains concerning with multiple arms on the IL, including Ryan Pepiot and Steven Matz. Miami counters with the hard-throwing Eury Pérez, whose 98+ mph fastball generates plenty of swings and misses (10.08 K/9) but comes with significant control concerns (4.56 BB/9, 1.37 WHIP). The young right-hander's wildness could play into Tampa Bay's patient approach, but his strikeout stuff gives him a ceiling that Rasmussen lacks. The Marlins' recent activation of closer Pete Fairbanks provides a significant bullpen boost that could prove decisive in late innings. Miami's offense has found life through Xavier Edwards (.317) and Otto Lopez (.337), giving them a dynamic top of the order that can capitalize on mistakes. Tampa Bay's lineup remains anchored by Yandy Díaz (.297, 6 HR) and the surprising Junior Caminero (11 HR), but their recent offensive inconsistency raises concerns. The Marlins' improved 7-13 road record belies their ability to compete away from home, and yesterday's offensive explosion suggests they've found their rhythm against Rays pitching.

Scoring Dynamics

Early (1-3) 3R Both teams showed offensive capability yesterday
Middle (4-6) 4R Pitchers settle in but hitters adjust
Late (7-9) 4R Bullpens tested after starter departures

Matchup Analysis

Rays

Strong home record (15-5)
Rasmussen's control and strikeout ability
AL East leading offense
Coming off 10-5 loss
Depleted pitching depth with multiple IL arms

Marlins

Edwards and Lopez hitting well (.317/.337)
Pérez's strikeout potential (10.08 K/9)
Just activated Pete Fairbanks
Poor road record (7-13)
Pérez's control issues (4.56 BB/9)

Risk Factors

Pérez's wildness could lead to big innings
Rays' offensive inconsistency from yesterday's loss

Key Matchups

Xavier Edwards vs Drew Rasmussen batter Edwards' .317 average vs Rasmussen's cutter-heavy approach
Yandy Díaz vs Eury Pérez batter Díaz's plate discipline vs Pérez's walk issues

Statistical Edges

First to Score Marlins 65%
Strikeouts 15 12-18
Total Runs 11 9-13

Game Preview

The game begins with Eury Pérez's electric fastball overwhelming the Rays' patient hitters, but his command issues surface early. After Xavier Edwards leads off the top of the first with a single and steals second, Otto Lopez drives him home with a sharp single to right, giving Miami an immediate 1-0 lead. Pérez settles in from there, using his four-seam fastball to blow past Rays hitters for the next three innings. Drew Rasmussen responds by locating his cutter perfectly, inducing weak contact and keeping the Marlins off balance. The Rays break through in the second when Yandy Díaz works a walk and Junior Caminero follows with an RBI double, knotting the game at 1-1. The middle innings become a chess match as both starters find their rhythm. However, Pérez's pitch count climbs due to multiple deep counts, and the Rays capitalize in the fourth with a two-run rally sparked by Taylor Walls' leadoff walk and clutch two-out hitting. Miami answers immediately in the fifth when their young hitters connect against Rasmussen's cutter, pushing across two runs to regain the lead 4-3. The late innings see both bullpens tested as starters exit around the sixth inning. The Marlins' newly activated Pete Fairbanks proves crucial, working around traffic in the eighth and ninth innings to preserve a narrow victory. A late two-run rally in the ninth, fueled by timely hitting with runners in scoring position, gives Miami the 6-5 victory and evens the series.
Miami's 72% confidence stems from Pérez's strikeout upside against a Rays lineup that struggled yesterday, plus their improved bullpen with Fairbanks' return. However, Tampa Bay's strong home record and Rasmussen's consistency keep this from being higher.
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Miami Marlins — Roster

PlayerPosAVGHRRBIOBPSLG
Xavier Edwards
2B .318416.404.468
Liam Hicks
1B .283940.345.490
Otto Lopez
SS .344421.374.503
Kyle Stowers
RF .20914.308.286
Connor Norby
DH .234414.329.387
Jakob Marsee
CF .212314.328.329
Leo Jiménez
3B .23701.333.263
Heriberto Hernández
LF .169112.281.234
Joe Mack
C .21602.237.297

Tampa Bay Rays — Roster

PlayerPosAVGHRRBIOBPSLG
Chandler Simpson
LF .297012.328.349
Junior Caminero
3B .2561223.342.488
Jonathan Aranda
1B .270834.376.459
Yandy Díaz
DH .295727.376.458
Richie Palacios
2B .24719.364.315
Jonny DeLuca
RF .272215.306.427
Cedric Mullins
CF .182314.247.277
Nick Fortes
C .28219.313.355
Taylor Walls
SS .216014.316.294

Scoring Plays

1
Junior Caminero homers (12) on a line drive to left field.
0-1
3
Xavier Edwards singles on a line drive to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Owen Caissie scores.
1-1
3
Otto Lopez singles on a line drive to right fielder Jonny DeLuca. Xavier Edwards scores.
2-1
4
Taylor Walls triples (2) on a fly ball to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Jonny DeLuca scores. Cedric Mullins scores. Nick Fortes scores.
2-4
5
Yandy Díaz homers (7) on a fly ball to center field.
2-5
6
Junior Caminero walks. Cedric Mullins scores. Taylor Walls to 3rd. Chandler Simpson to 2nd.
2-6
8
Kyle Stowers singles on a line drive to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Otto Lopez scores.
3-6

Miami Marlins — Batting

PlayerABRHRBIBBKHRAVGOPS
Xavier Edwards2B
5121010.318.872
Liam Hicks1B
4000110.283.835
Otto LopezSS
4121000.344.877
Kyle StowersRF
3011110.209.594
Connor NorbyDH
4010000.234.716
Jakob MarseeCF
3020100.212.657
Leo Jiménez3B
4010010.237.596
Heriberto HernándezLF
1000000.169.515
Joe MackC
2010000.216.534
Totals353113350
BATTING
2B: Marsee (5, Rasmussen); Lopez, O (13, Cleavinger); Norby (9, Cleavinger).
TB: Caissie; Edwards, X 2; Jiménez, L; Lopez, O 3; Mack; Marsee 3; Norby 2; Stowers.
RBI: Edwards, X (16); Lopez, O (21); Stowers (4).
2-out RBI: Lopez, O.
Runners left in scoring position, 2 out: Stowers 2; Hernández, H 2; Lopez, O.
GIDP: Jiménez, L; Lopez, O.
Team RISP: 3-for-11.
Team LOB: 9.
BASERUNNING
SB: Lopez, O 2 (7, 2nd base off Rasmussen/Fortes, 2nd base off Rasmussen/Fortes); Caissie (3, 2nd base off Rasmussen/Fortes); Edwards, X 2 (6, 2nd base off Rasmussen/Fortes, 2nd base off Rasmussen/Fortes).
CS: Marsee (5, 3rd base by Rasmussen/Fortes).
FIELDING
E: Jiménez, L (1, throw).
DP: (Edwards, X-Morel, C).
a-Grounded out for Morel, C in the 7th.
b-Lined out for Caissie in the 8th.

Tampa Bay Rays — Batting

PlayerABRHRBIBBKHRAVGOPS
Chandler SimpsonLF
4000010.297.677
Junior Caminero3B
2112211.256.830
Jonathan Aranda1B
4000010.270.835
Yandy DíazDH
3111101.295.834
Richie Palacios2B
3000110.247.679
Jonny DeLucaRF
4120000.272.733
Cedric MullinsCF
3210100.182.524
Nick FortesC
4110000.282.668
Taylor WallsSS
3013110.216.610
Totals30676652
BATTING
2B: DeLuca (10, Pérez, Eu).
3B: Walls (2, Pérez, Eu).
HR: Caminero (12, 1st inning off Pérez, Eu, 0 on, 1 out); Díaz, Y (7, 5th inning off Pérez, Eu, 0 on, 2 out).
TB: Caminero 4; DeLuca 3; Díaz, Y 4; Fortes; Mullins; Walls 3.
RBI: Caminero 2 (23); Díaz, Y (27); Walls 3 (14).
2-out RBI: Díaz, Y; Caminero; Walls 3.
Runners left in scoring position, 2 out: Simpson; Walls; Aranda 2.
Team RISP: 2-for-8.
Team LOB: 6.
BASERUNNING
SB: Palacios, R (6, 2nd base off Pérez, Eu/Hicks, L).
CS: DeLuca (2, 2nd base by Phillips/Mack).
FIELDING
DP: 2 (Rasmussen-Palacios, R-Aranda; Walls-Aranda).

Miami Marlins — Pitching

PitcherIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERA
Eury Pérez(L, 2-6)
5.0555452102-635.33
Tyler Phillips
2.021120043-311.33
John King
1.000000012-72.29

Tampa Bay Rays — Pitching

PitcherIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERA
Drew Rasmussen(W, 4-1)
5.172222093-553.19
Kevin Kelly(H, 10)
1.200001021-162.42
Garrett Cleavinger
0.131111011-65.40
Ian Seymour(H, 9)
0.20000107-55.32
Bryan Baker(S, 12)
1.010000010-82.79

Game Info

Umpires: Home Plate: Ramon De Jesus; First Base: Paul Clemons; Second Base: Quinn Wolcott; Third Base: Brock Ballou
Venue: Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg
Weather: 72°F, Dome
Wind: 0 mph, None

Miami Marlins — News

Tampa Bay Rays — News

Season Comparison

Marlins
STAT
Rays
28-34 Record 36-22
45.2% Win % 62.1%
.452 PCT .621
264 Runs For 271
285 Runs Against 261
62 Games Played 58
W2 Streak L2
5-5 Last 10 3-7
18-15 Home Record 21-8
10-19 Away Record 15-14

Head to Head

1
Last 2 meetings
1
May 16
Marlins 10 - 5 Rays
May 15
Marlins 2 - 7 Rays

Marlins Recent

Jun 3 @ Nationals 4-1 W
Jun 2 @ Nationals 7-3 W
Jun 1 @ Nationals 7-3 W
May 31 @ Mets 1-10 L
May 30 @ Mets 1-6 L

Rays Recent

Jun 3 vs Tigers 7-2 L
Jun 2 vs Tigers 8-0 L
Jun 1 vs Tigers 10-9 L
May 31 vs Angels 2-5 W
May 30 vs Angels 14-3 L

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