New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays — Mar 17, 2026 | AI Prediction & Stats

Expect a crisp outing from Gerrit Cole, who draws the start for New York and matches up against Tampa Bay’s Shane Baz, making just his second start after last season’s elbow cleanup. Cole’s elite fastball/slider combination should neutralize the left-handed core of the Rays, while Baz is likely to be on a 90-pitch leash that exposes a Rays bullpen already overworked during the first week of spring games. The Yankees arrive in St. Petersburg riding a five-game head-to-head winning streak and a perfect 5-0 start to the Grapefruit League, and their offense is clicking: Aaron Judge’s timing looks mid-season ready, and Jasson Domínguez has added much-needed left-handed thump behind him. In the predicted third inning, look for Judge to capitalize on Baz’s elevated four-seamer with a two-run shot, staking New York to a 3-0 advantage. Tampa Bay’s best chance to score comes in the fourth when Isaac Paredes pulls a hanging curve into the left-field seats, but otherwise the Rays’ attack is likely to be limited to scattered singles. Cole should give the Yankees five efficient frames before handing it to a fresh trio of Ian Hamilton, Jonathan Loáisiga, and Clay Holmes. Those three have yet to allow a run this spring and match up well against Tampa Bay’s right-leaning bench. Kevin Cash will probably push his versatile bullpen again after Baz exits, but the seventh-inning “bulk” arm—projected to be lefty Jacob Lopez—faces a gauntlet of right-handed power. A Gleyber Torres double followed by Domínguez’s RBI single and an Oswaldo Cabrera sac fly in the eighth provide New York’s insurance. Defensively, the Yankees’ upgraded outfield speed with Domínguez in center helps cut off Tampa Bay’s gap hits, while the Rays’ infield shuffle without the injured Wander Franco shows up on a potential double-play ball that turns into only one out and precedes the Yankees’ fifth-inning run. Bottom line: superior starting pitching length, a deeper bullpen, and a red-hot offense keep the Yankees’ roll going, while the Rays continue to search for answers behind a still-restricted Shane Baz and an offense that misses consistent on-base threats at the top.