返回比赛 星期二, 四月 28, 2026

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers — 四月 28, 2026 | AI 预测与数据

American Family Field, Milwaukee
67°F, Roof Closed
0 mph, None
W Chad Patrick L Merrill Kelly SV Jake Woodford

记分板

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
Diamondbacks 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 3 1
Brewers 0 1 0 2 2 8 0 0 - 13 15 0

AI预测神经网络预测

AI
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R
Diamondbacks 1 0 2 0 1 0 2 1 0 7
Brewers 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 1 0 5
Confidence: 68% Diamondbacks favored
This matchup presents an intriguing scenario with Milwaukee's Chad Patrick facing an unknown Arizona starter. Patrick has shown consistent velocity around 90 mph with a cutter-heavy approach, throwing his four-seam fastball and cutter nearly 62% of the time. His recent starts show steady performance, though he's yet to emerge as a dominant force. The Brewers are dealing with significant injury concerns, particularly the loss of Christian Yelich and Jackson Chourio, which has forced them to rely on depth players and recent call-ups like Tyler Black. Arizona enters this series with a slightly better record despite a negative run differential, suggesting they've been competitive in close games. Corbin Carroll has been their offensive catalyst with 17 RBIs, while Ildemaro Vargas has been red-hot at .367. The Diamondbacks' injury list is extensive, including ace Corbin Burnes and key position players like Gabriel Moreno and Carlos Santana, but they've managed to stay competitive through organizational depth. The unknown starting pitcher for Arizona creates significant uncertainty in this analysis. Recent transactions show they selected Jesus Valdez as their 27th man, potentially indicating roster flexibility needs. Milwaukee's home field advantage at American Family Field could be crucial, especially with the overcast conditions and westerly wind that might favor pitchers. Both teams have shown offensive capabilities when healthy, and this game has the makings of a higher-scoring affair given the pitching uncertainties. Key factors include how Milwaukee's makeshift lineup performs without their star players, and whether Arizona's unknown starter can navigate the Brewers' aggressive approach. The bullpen usage will be critical for both teams, particularly if the starting pitcher situation forces early hook decisions. Weather conditions appear neutral, though the 60-degree temperature might slightly favor pitchers early in the game.

Scoring Dynamics

Early (1-3) 3R Both teams score early with aggressive approaches
Middle (4-6) 4R Middle innings see steady production from both sides
Late (7-9) 5R Late rally attempts create high-scoring finish

Matchup Analysis

Brewers

William Contreras behind the plate
Home field advantage at American Family Field
Recent 5-0 shutout win momentum
Significant IL losses including Yelich and Chourio
Chad Patrick facing TBD pitcher uncertainty

Diamondbacks

Corbin Carroll leading the offense
Better overall record and run differential
Ildemaro Vargas hitting .367
Extensive injury list including Corbin Burnes
Unknown starting pitcher creates uncertainty

Risk Factors

Unknown Arizona starter creates unpredictability
Weather conditions with overcast skies and wind

Key Matchups

Corbin Carroll vs Chad Patrick batter Carroll's speed vs Patrick's cutter-heavy approach
William Contreras vs TBD batter Experienced catcher against unknown starter

Statistical Edges

First to Score Diamondbacks 62%
Strikeouts 16 12-20
Total Runs 12 9-15

Game Preview

The game opens with Arizona's mystery starter immediately tested by Milwaukee's revamped lineup. Brice Turang works a leadoff walk and eventually scores on a William Contreras sacrifice fly to give the Brewers an early 1-0 lead. However, Corbin Carroll answers immediately in the second inning with a leadoff double, advanced by Ildemaro Vargas and brought home by James McCann to tie the game at 1-1. The middle innings see both offenses find their rhythm. Chad Patrick settles into a groove with his cutter, but Arizona breaks through in the fourth inning when Carroll leads off with his third home run of the season. The Diamondbacks add another run on consecutive two-out singles, taking a 3-1 lead. Milwaukee responds in their half of the fourth as Garrett Mitchell reaches base and scores along with Contreras on a Turang double, evening the score at 3-3. The game's decisive moment comes in the seventh inning when Arizona capitalizes on Patrick's final inning of work. After Patrick departs with two runners on base, the Diamondbacks string together three consecutive hits against Milwaukee's middle relief, pushing across two crucial runs. They add an insurance run in the eighth inning when Vargas extends his hot streak with an RBI single. Milwaukee mounts a final rally in the ninth, scoring twice to make it interesting, but Arizona's bullpen closes out a 7-5 victory to start the series on a winning note.
The 68% confidence reflects the significant uncertainty created by Arizona's unknown starting pitcher, which makes precise prediction challenging. However, Arizona's slightly superior record and key offensive contributors like Carroll give them a measurable edge over Milwaukee's injury-depleted lineup.
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Arizona Diamondbacks — 阵容

球员位置AVGHRRBIOBPSLG
Ildemaro Vargas
2B .370620.393.716
Jorge Barrosa
RF .20316.254.407
Aramis Garcia
C .33300.333.333
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
LF .10703.167.143
Adrian Del Castillo
1B .224110.269.347
Jose Fernandez
SS .329312.354.481
Tim Tawa
3B .16316.245.279
Alek Thomas
CF .205210.244.385

Milwaukee Brewers — 阵容

球员位置AVGHRRBIOBPSLG
Greg Jones
RF .13301.133.133
William Contreras
C .272216.348.388
Luis Rengifo
3B .17106.247.250
Tyler Black
DH .38503.385.462
Jake Bauers
1B .261517.320.467
Brandon Lockridge
LF .25408.338.296
Blake Perkins
CF .12805.244.205
David Hamilton
2B .24607.358.275
Joey Ortiz
SS .20006.278.200

得分记录

2
Sal Frelick homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field.
0-1
4
Joey Ortiz singles on a line drive to center fielder Alek Thomas. Brandon Lockridge scores. Sal Frelick scores.
0-3
5
James McCann singles on a ground ball to left fielder Brandon Lockridge. Adrian Del Castillo scores. Jose Fernandez scores. Nolan Arenado to 2nd.
2-3
5
Tyler Black singles on a line drive to center fielder Alek Thomas. William Contreras scores. Brice Turang scores.
2-5
6
Garrett Mitchell singles on a ground ball to left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Sal Frelick scores. David Hamilton to 3rd. Joey Ortiz to 2nd.
2-6
6
William Contreras singles on a ground ball to left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. David Hamilton scores. Joey Ortiz scores. Garrett Mitchell to 2nd.
2-8
6
Tyler Black singles on a fly ball to center fielder Alek Thomas. Garrett Mitchell scores. William Contreras to 3rd. Brice Turang to 2nd.
2-9
6
Jake Bauers singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Alek Thomas. William Contreras scores. Brice Turang scores. Tyler Black to 3rd.
2-11
6
David Hamilton hits a ground-rule double (2) on a line drive down the left-field line. Tyler Black scores. Jake Bauers scores. Sal Frelick to 3rd.
2-13

Arizona Diamondbacks — 打击

球员ABRHRBIBBKHRAVGOPS
Ildemaro Vargas2B
2010100.3701.109
Jorge BarrosaRF
1000000.203.661
Aramis GarciaC
1000000.333.666
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.LF
4000020.107.310
Adrian Del Castillo1B
2100210.224.616
Jose FernandezSS
3100100.329.835
Tim Tawa3B
2010010.163.524
Alek ThomasCF
3000000.205.629
James McCannP
3012020.205.495
总计28232580
BATTING
TB: McCann; Tawa; Vargas, I.
RBI: McCann 2 (6).
Runners left in scoring position, 2 out: Marte, K 2.
SAC: Vargas, I.
GIDP: Arenado.
Team RISP: 1-for-3.
Team LOB: 5.
FIELDING
E: McCann (1, catcher interference).
a-Singled for Arenado in the 7th.

Milwaukee Brewers — 打击

球员ABRHRBIBBKHRAVGOPS
Greg JonesRF
0000000.133.266
William ContrerasC
4222100.272.736
Luis Rengifo3B
1000000.171.497
Tyler BlackDH
5133000.385.847
Jake Bauers1B
4112100.261.787
Brandon LockridgeLF
4100110.254.634
Blake PerkinsCF
1000000.128.449
David Hamilton2B
5122000.246.633
Joey OrtizSS
4122010.200.478
总计37131513621
BATTING
2B: Turang (6, Kelly, Me); Hamilton, D (2, Hoffmann, A).
HR: Frelick (2, 2nd inning off Kelly, Me, 0 on, 0 out).
TB: Bauers; Black 3; Contreras, Wm 2; Frelick 5; Hamilton, D 3; Mitchell; Ortiz, J 2; Turang 3.
RBI: Bauers 2 (17); Black 3 (3); Contreras, Wm 2 (16); Frelick (8); Hamilton, D 2 (7); Mitchell (20); Ortiz, J 2 (6).
2-out RBI: Ortiz, J 2.
Runners left in scoring position, 2 out: Mitchell 2; Lockridge 3.
Team RISP: 8-for-15.
Team LOB: 7.
BASERUNNING
CS: Mitchell (3, 2nd base by Kelly, Me/McCann); Ortiz, J (2, 2nd base by Kelly, Me/McCann).
FIELDING
DP: (Ortiz, J-Turang-Bauers).
a-Grounded out for Turang in the 7th.

Arizona Diamondbacks — 投球

投手IPHRERBBKHRPC-STERA
Merrill Kelly(L, 1-2)
5.0655511104-589.20
Andrew Hoffmann
0.188810038-238.49
Ryan Thompson
0.20000108-73.97
Taylor Clarke
1.010000012-73.07
James McCann
1.00000006-415.00

Milwaukee Brewers — 投球

投手IPHRERBBKHRPC-STERA
Chad Patrick(W, 2-1)
5.012255098-602.57
Shane Drohan(H, 1)
1.000001010-94.70
Jake Woodford(S, 1)
3.020002035-264.61

比赛信息

裁判: Home Plate: Lance Barrett; First Base: Alfonso Márquez; Second Base: Mike Estabrook; Third Base: Malachi Moore
球场: American Family Field, Milwaukee
天气: 67°F, Roof Closed
风: 0 mph, None

Milwaukee Brewers — 新闻

赛季对比

Diamondbacks
STAT
Brewers
39-37 战绩 45-29
51.3% Win % 60.8%
.513 PCT .608
329 得分 388
352 失分 274
76 比赛场次 74
L1 连胜/负 L3
5-5 最近10场 4-6
24-16 主场战绩 25-15
15-21 客场战绩 20-14

交手记录

2
最近 3 次交手
1
四月 30
Diamondbacks 1 - 13 Brewers
四月 29
Diamondbacks 6 - 2 Brewers
三月 20
Brewers 7 - 8 Diamondbacks

Diamondbacks 近期

六月 21 vs Twins 4-2 L
六月 20 vs Twins 16-8 L
六月 19 vs Twins 5-9 W
六月 17 vs Angels 1-8 W
六月 16 vs Angels 7-0 L

Brewers 近期

六月 21 @ Braves 9-4 W
六月 20 @ Braves 3-4 L
六月 19 @ Braves 2-3 L
六月 18 vs Guardians 4-2 L
六月 17 vs Guardians 4-9 W

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