Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets — 四月 9, 2026 | AI 预测与数据

Nolan McLean’s rising four-seamer/slider mix has overwhelmed righties and neutralized lefties so far, and his 1.04 WHIP projects to hold up against an Arizona lineup missing middle-order depth with Carlos Santana and Jordan Lawlar on the IL. Expect McLean to cruise through the first two frames before Corbin Carroll ambushes a third-inning heater for a solo shot—the lone early blemish. Eduardo Rodríguez has looked sharper than his 2025 line suggests, but the Mets’ right-handed thumpers match up well with his cutter/change repertoire. Francisco Álvarez and Luis Robert Jr. have posted OPS marks north of .850 versus lefties; Álvarez doubles home a run in the second, then Robert Jr. caps a two-run fourth with a laser into the left-field seats. Once the Mets force Rodríguez over 90 pitches, Arizona must lean on a bullpen that has already absorbed 14⅔ innings the last two days, opening the door for late tack-on runs courtesy of Brett Baty’s gap double in the seventh and Mark Vientos’ opposite-field RBI single in the eighth. Arizona chips away when Ketel Marte doubles home Alek Thomas in the sixth, and a ninth-inning sac fly off Luis García narrows the margin, but Devin Williams slams the door with his trademark Airbender changeup. Key edges: • Starting pitching—McLean’s strike-throwing versus Rodríguez’s third-time-through struggles. • Bullpen freshness—Brooks Raley and Williams are rested, while Arizona’s high-leverage arms have been overworked. • Platoon advantage—Mets’ right-handed core faces a lefty starter. Final verdict: Mets 5, Diamondbacks 3, pushing New York to 8-5 and keeping Arizona at .500.