Tilbake til kamper Mandag, Mai 4, 2026

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins — Mai 4, 2026 | AI-prediksjon og statistikk

loanDepot park, Miami
72°F, Roof Closed
0 mph, None
W Aaron Nola L Janson Junk SV Brad Keller

Resultattavle

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
Phillies 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 1
Marlins 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 1

AI-PROGNOSENevralt nettverk prognose

AI
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R
Phillies 1 0 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 5
Marlins 0 1 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 4
Confidence: 72% Phillies favored
This matchup features a fascinating contrast in pitching styles and recent form. Aaron Nola comes in struggling mightily with a 6.03 ERA despite maintaining elite strikeout ability at 10.05 K/9. His control issues (3.73 BB/9) have been his undoing, and facing a Miami lineup led by the red-hot Xavier Edwards (.336 average) and Otto Lopez (.336 average) presents immediate danger. The Marlins have found their offensive identity at the top of the order, though depth remains a concern beyond those two catalysts. Janson Junk counters with exceptional control (1.06 WHIP, 2.18 BB/9) but limited strikeout upside at just 5.73 K/9. His fastball-slider combination has been effective, but Philadelphia's lineup features more proven major league talent with Brandon Marsh (.304, 4 HR) and Trea Turner providing middle-of-the-order threats that Miami's supporting cast can't match. The Phillies enter with momentum from yesterday's 7-2 victory and have taken two of three in this series, suggesting they've solved Miami's pitching approach. However, Miami's strong home record (11-8) and the uncertainty around Nola's command create leverage for the home side. Both bullpens have been taxed in this series, giving slight edge to Philadelphia's deeper relief corps despite recent injuries to key arms like Jhoan Duran. The weather conditions with northeast winds at 16 mph could favor pitchers, potentially keeping this game closer than the recent high-scoring affairs in this series.

Scoring Dynamics

Early (1-3) 2R Nola's early struggles give Miami first strike opportunity
Middle (4-6) 4R Both starters tire, bullpens enter with inherited runners
Late (7-9) 3R Philadelphia's superior lineup depth emerges in clutch spots

Matchup Analysis

Marlins

Strong home record (11-8)
Junk's excellent control (1.06 WHIP)
Edwards and Lopez hitting well at top of order
Limited offensive depth beyond top two hitters
Coming off 7-2 loss yesterday

Phillies

Better overall lineup talent with Marsh and Turner
Nola's strikeout ability (10.05 K/9)
Recent momentum with series win
Nola's inflated 6.03 ERA and control issues
Poor road record (6-10)

Risk Factors

Nola's early inning volatility
Miami's home park advantage in close games

Key Matchups

Xavier Edwards vs Aaron Nola batter Edwards' contact approach vs Nola's control struggles
Brandon Marsh vs Janson Junk batter Marsh's power vs Junk's fastball-heavy approach

Statistical Edges

First to Score Phillies 65%
Strikeouts 12 10-14
Total Runs 9 7-11

Game Preview

Aaron Nola takes the mound at loanDepot park looking to cap Philadelphia's series victory, but his early command will be tested immediately by Xavier Edwards, who has tormented Phillies pitching all series. Edwards works a leadoff walk on five pitches, setting the tone for another potential Nola struggle. Otto Lopez follows with a sharp single to right, but Nola escapes with a double play grounder from Kyle Stowers. The Phillies answer quickly against Janson Junk in the second when Brandon Marsh turns on a first-pitch fastball for his fifth homer of the season, giving Philadelphia an early 1-0 lead. Miami responds in the bottom of the second when Edwards doubles off the wall and scores on Lopez's RBI single, evening the score at 1-1. Nola settles into a rhythm through the middle innings, using his knuckle curve effectively to retire Miami's lower order. However, the fifth inning brings familiar troubles as he walks two batters and allows a two-run double to Christopher Morel, putting Miami ahead 3-1. Junk matches Nola's resilience but begins to tire in the sixth, surrendering back-to-back doubles to Trea Turner and Justin Crawford that cut the lead to 3-2. The Phillies complete their comeback in the sixth when Edmundo Sosa's two-out single plates Crawford for a 3-3 tie, then takes the lead on a wild pitch. Miami rallies for one final time in the seventh when Esteury Ruiz's pinch-hit RBI single ties the game at 4-4, but Philadelphia's deeper lineup proves decisive in the eighth. With Miami's bullpen showing fatigue from the series workload, Turner delivers the decisive blow with an RBI single that gives Philadelphia a 5-4 victory and series win.
The 72% confidence reflects Philadelphia's superior overall talent and series momentum, but acknowledges Miami's strong home record and the volatility that Nola's control issues bring to any start. This is a close game where small margins will decide the outcome.
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Philadelphia Phillies — Tropp

SpillerPos.AVGHRRBIOBPSLG
Trea Turner
SS .236411.296.364
Kyle Schwarber
DH .2131120.359.535
Bryce Harper
1B .271720.362.519
Adolis García
RF .244311.314.374
Brandon Marsh
LF .309418.339.482
Bryson Stott
2B .198211.250.317
Alec Bohm
3B .157115.222.207
Garrett Stubbs
C .26701.294.267
Justin Crawford
CF .26007.327.360

Miami Marlins — Tropp

SpillerPos.AVGHRRBIOBPSLG
Jakob Marsee
CF .18518.305.262
Javier Sanoja
PR .304010.368.362
Otto Lopez
SS .338315.372.493
Xavier Edwards
2B .333211.419.465
Liam Hicks
DH .297729.353.535
Christopher Morel
1B .28600.375.286
Joe Mack
C .00000.000.000
Esteury Ruiz
RF .26723.267.733
Connor Norby
3B .235311.336.392

Scoringer

3
Bryce Harper homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field.
1-0

Philadelphia Phillies — Batting

SpillerABRHRBIBBKHRAVGOPS
Trea TurnerSS
4000020.236.660
Kyle SchwarberDH
4000010.213.894
Bryce Harper1B
4131001.271.881
Adolis GarcíaRF
4020010.244.688
Brandon MarshLF
4010000.309.821
Bryson Stott2B
4000010.198.567
Alec Bohm3B
4000000.157.429
Garrett StubbsC
4010010.267.561
Justin CrawfordCF
3000020.260.687
Totalt35171081
BATTING
2B: Harper, B (9, Junk).
HR: Harper, B (7, 3rd inning off Junk, 0 on, 2 out).
TB: García, Ad 2; Harper, B 7; Marsh; Stubbs, G.
RBI: Harper, B (20).
2-out RBI: Harper, B.
Runners left in scoring position, 2 out: García, Ad; Crawford.
Team RISP: 0-for-3.
Team LOB: 7.
FIELDING
E: Turner (5, fielding).
DP: (Turner-Stott-Harper, B).

Miami Marlins — Batting

SpillerABRHRBIBBKHRAVGOPS
Jakob MarseeCF
4020020.185.567
Javier SanojaPR
0000000.304.730
Otto LopezSS
4010000.338.865
Xavier Edwards2B
4010000.333.884
Liam HicksDH
4000010.297.888
Christopher Morel1B
3010020.286.661
Joe MackC
3000010.000.000
Esteury RuizRF
1000000.2671.000
Connor Norby3B
1000000.235.728
Totalt32070070
BATTING
TB: Edwards, X; Lopez, O; Marsee 2; Morel, C; Stowers 2.
Runners left in scoring position, 2 out: Lopez, O.
GIDP: Lopez, O.
Team RISP: 0-for-1.
Team LOB: 5.
BASERUNNING
CS: Marsee (2, 2nd base by Nola, A/Stubbs, G); Lopez, O (2, 2nd base by Nola, A/Stubbs, G).
FIELDING
E: Lopez, O (7, fielding).
a-Popped out for Caissie in the 8th.
b-Flied out for Pauley in the 8th.
1-Ran for Stowers in the 9th.

Philadelphia Phillies — Pitching

PitcherIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERA
Aaron Nola(W, 2-3)
6.050005094-615.06
Tanner Banks(H, 2)
1.000001018-116.08
José Alvarado(H, 5)
1.00000108-66.17
Brad Keller(S, 2)
1.020000010-74.30

Miami Marlins — Pitching

PitcherIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERA
Janson Junk(L, 2-3)
5.151106192-642.82
John King
0.200000010-70.57
Calvin Faucher
1.010001015-114.15
Lake Bachar
2.010001029-182.50

Kampinfo

Dommere: Home Plate: Bruce Dreckman; First Base: Mark Wegner; Second Base: Carlos Torres; Third Base: Nate Tomlinson
Stadion: loanDepot park, Miami
Vær: 72°F, Roof Closed
Vind: 0 mph, None

Philadelphia Phillies — Nyheter

Miami Marlins — Nyheter

Sesongsammenligning

Phillies
STAT
Marlins
32-29 Resultat 29-34
52.5% Win % 46.0%
.525 PCT .460
236 Runs for 268
260 Runs mot 286
61 Spilte kamper 63
W2 Rekke W3
7-3 Siste 10 5-5
16-16 Hjemmeresultat 18-15
16-13 Borteresultat 11-19

Innbyrdes

2
Siste 3 moter
1
Mai 3
Phillies 7 - 2 Marlins
Mai 2
Phillies 0 - 4 Marlins
Mai 1
Phillies 6 - 5 Marlins

Phillies Siste

Jun 4 vs Padres 4-6 W
Jun 3 vs Padres 2-3 W
Jun 2 vs Padres 2-3 W
Mai 31 @ Dodgers 1-9 L
Mai 30 @ Dodgers 4-3 W

Marlins Siste

Jun 3 @ Nationals 4-1 W
Jun 2 @ Nationals 7-3 W
Jun 1 @ Nationals 7-3 W
Mai 31 @ Mets 1-10 L
Mai 30 @ Mets 1-6 L

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