Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins — 3月 20, 2026 | AI予測と統計

Miami’s decision to hand the ball to Edward Cabrera gives them the clear pitching edge. Cabrera’s riding a sharp spring—his change-up has finally paired with consistent fastball command, and Washington’s lineup struck out 27.4 % of the time against right-handed change-ups last season. Opposite him, the Nationals roll out MacKenzie Gore on short rest after his 45-pitch tune-up on the 18th. Gore’s velo is back, but his breaking ball location has been erratic, and Miami’s right-handed middle order (Burger, Soler, and De La Cruz) punishes misplaced spin. The recent head-to-head trend also favors Miami: three wins in the last four completed meetings, each keyed by early-inning pressure and solid bullpen work. The Marlins’ high-leverage trio—Scott, Nardi, and Puk—enter rested after Wednesday’s rainout, while Washington’s pen is stretched; Finnegan and Harvey each threw back-to-back days. Washington can still scratch out runs—CJ Abrams continues to wreak havoc on the bases and Lane Thomas matches up well against Cabrera’s four-seamer—hence the third-inning and ninth-inning tallies. But Miami’s deeper lineup, cleaner defense, and fresher relief arms tilt the balance. Expect a tight game through five before the Marlins add insurance in the sixth and eighth to seal a 5-3 victory.