Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies — 4月 13, 2026 | AI予測と統計

Cristopher Sánchez enters the matchup in peak form, carrying a sub-2.00 early-season ERA and the confidence that comes with 22 quality starts last season. His left-handed angle is a tough look for a Cubs lineup that is heavy on left-handed run producers (Conforto, Busch, Crow-Armstrong) and has several right-handed bats mired in slow starts (Bregman .207, Swanson .149). Sánchez’s plus changeup should neutralize Nico Hoerner, the one Chicago hitter currently locked in, and his ground-ball profile limits the long ball in homer-friendly Citizens Bank Park. Javier Assad has been efficient (0.53 WHIP in his last turn) but profiles more as a contact manager. Facing a Phillies order featuring three premium left-hand mashers—Schwarber, Harper and Marsh—he has little margin for error. Schwarber’s first-inning OPS is historically elite, and with Assad still settling in, a quick two-run blast is likely. Bullpen depth tilts heavily toward Philadelphia. Jhoan Duran (five saves, 1.35 ERA) sets the late-inning tone, while Mayza and Kerkering give Rob Thomson multiple left-right leverage options. The Cubs, already down Hunter Harvey, are relying on a patchwork middle-relief corps; any early exit by Assad exposes soft underbelly innings. Chicago scrapes across single tallies on a Swanson sac fly in the second and a Happ solo shot when Sánchez tires in the sixth, but Sánchez hands a 4-2 lead to the ‘pen. Duran shuts the door with triple-digit heat, and the Phillies ride balanced scoring—Schwarber’s two-run first, a Harper RBI double in the fourth, and a Realmuto opposite-field knock in the seventh—to a tidy, confidence-building victory that pulls them back to .500 and drops the Cubs into sole possession of the division cellar.