Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds — אפר 1, 2026 | תחזית AI וסטטיסטיקות

Paul Skenes’ wipeout stuff should return after his brief, rocky opener, but the Reds’ disciplined top of the order figures to extend counts early. In the third inning a pair of patient at-bats by Matt McLain and Sal Stewart set up Elly De La Cruz, whose switch-hit power tags a first-pitch heater for a two-run double down the line. Andrew Abbott mixes his high-ride four-seamer and sweeping curve to cruise through two frames before surrendering a solo shot to red-hot Brandon Lowe in the second. Abbott settles, flashing his improved changeup to neutralize Pittsburgh’s right-handed bench bats, and Cincinnati manufactures another run in the fifth when Will Benson legs out a triple into the alley and scores on a Spencer Steer sacrifice fly. Skenes exits after five (95 pitches, 3 ER), keeping the Pirates within striking distance. Pittsburgh closes to 3-2 in the sixth when Ryan O’Hearn ambushes a first-pitch cutter from reliever Graham Ashcraft, lining an RBI single through the shift. The Reds answer immediately: McLain draws his second walk, steals second, and scores on Sal Stewart’s opposite-field single off Justin Lawrence in the seventh. Cincinnati’s late-inning bullpen trio of Tony Santillan, Sam Moll, and Connor Phillips has been spotless and holds again, though Henry Davis’ eighth-inning RBI double off Santillan narrows it to 4-3. Sam Moll strands the tying run at third by freezing Nick Gonzales with a back-door slider. Pierce Johnson gets the ninth because Alexis Díaz is unavailable, but Johnson induces a game-ending 6-4-3 double play from Oneil Cruz, sealing a tight Reds victory. Expect a crisp, low-scoring contest shaped by two quality starters, with Cincinnati’s marginally deeper bullpen and home-park familiarity providing the decisive edge.