Takaisin peleihin Lauantai, Tou 9, 2026

St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres — Tou 9, 2026 | AI-ennuste ja tilastot

Petco Park, San Diego
68°F, Sunny
7 mph, L To R
W Randy Vásquez L Dustin May SV Mason Miller

Tulostaulu

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
Cardinals 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 2 7 1
Padres 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 1 - 4 5 0

AI-ENNUSTENeuroverkon ennuste

AI
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R
Cardinals 0 0 1 1 0 0 2 1 0 5
Padres 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 0 1 5
Confidence: 52% Padres favored
This series finale at Petco Park presents a compelling clash between two teams heading in opposite directions. St. Louis enters with tremendous momentum, having taken the first two games decisively (6-0, 2-1) and riding an 8-2 mark over their last ten contests. Jordan Walker continues his breakout campaign (.309 AVG, 10 HR, 27 RBI), providing the Cardinals with consistent offensive production. However, their starting pitching remains questionable as Dustin May brings a concerning 5.16 ERA and 1.53 WHIP to the mound, despite maintaining his trademark velocity (96.9 mph fastball average). San Diego desperately needs to salvage this series after being outscored 8-1 over the first two games. Randy Vásquez offers hope as their most reliable starter recently, posting a solid 3.20 ERA with improved command (1.17 WHIP). The Padres' offensive struggles are compounded by the loss of catcher Luis Campusano (.288 AVG) to a toe fracture, forcing rookie Rodolfo Durán into action behind the plate. With Jackson Merrill and Ramón Laureano providing their primary power threats, San Diego must capitalize on May's control issues early. The pitching matchup heavily favors the Padres on paper, as Vásquez's consistency contrasts sharply with May's volatility. May's recent starts show concerning command lapses, walking too many hitters for someone with his stuff. However, St. Louis has shown remarkable resilience this season, particularly on the road (13-5 away record). The Cardinals' ability to manufacture runs and capitalize on mistakes has been their calling card during this hot stretch. Weather conditions are ideal for offense with clear skies and moderate winds, potentially neutralizing Petco Park's pitcher-friendly dimensions.

Scoring Dynamics

Early (1-3) 3R Both starters struggle with command early, allowing baserunners
Middle (4-6) 4R Offenses capitalize on middle relief, key rallies in 4th-6th innings
Late (7-9) 3R Bullpens settle in but clutch hitting creates final scoring bursts

Matchup Analysis

Padres

Randy Vásquez's improved velocity and control
Strong home pitching environment at Petco Park
Jordan Walker struggling against righties
Offense averaging just 1 run in last two games
Missing key catcher Luis Campusano

Cardinals

Jordan Walker's hot hitting (.309 AVG, 10 HR)
Dominant momentum with 8-2 last ten record
Dustin May's power stuff when locating
May's elevated ERA (5.16) and WHIP (1.53)
Low strikeout rate for power pitcher

Risk Factors

Pitchers' recent workload inconsistencies
Weather could favor offense with clear skies

Key Matchups

Jordan Walker vs Randy Vásquez batter Walker's power vs Vásquez's fastball command
Jackson Merrill vs Dustin May batter Young hitter can turn on May's velocity

Statistical Edges

First to Score Cardinals 60%
Strikeouts 14 11-17
Total Runs 10 8-12

Game Preview

The afternoon begins with Dustin May's explosive fastball creating early fireworks, but his command wavers in the first inning as he walks Bryce Johnson before escaping unscathed. Randy Vásquez responds with crisp location, retiring the Cardinals in order on just 11 pitches. The breakthrough comes in the second inning when Ty France laces a double down the left field line, eventually scoring on a wild pitch from May to give San Diego their first lead of the series. The game's complexion shifts dramatically in the third and fourth innings. Jordan Walker launches a solo homer off Vásquez's elevated fastball to tie it 1-1, then JJ Wetherholt follows with an RBI single in the fourth. But San Diego answers immediately, as Jackson Merrill drives in two runs with a bases-loaded single, capitalizing on May's inability to throw strikes consistently. The Padres grab a 4-2 advantage, finally showing the offensive life that had been absent all series. The late innings become a battle of attrition as both bullpens enter. St. Louis scratches back with manufactured runs in the seventh, using aggressive baserunning and timely hitting to tie the game at 5-5. The Cardinals appear poised for another comeback victory, but Ramón Laureano delivers the decisive blow in the bottom of the ninth, driving home the winning run with a clutch two-out single. San Diego avoids the sweep with a thrilling 6-5 victory, but questions remain about both teams' pitching depth heading into their next series.
This is an extremely close matchup with legitimate arguments for both sides. The Cardinals have clear momentum and superior recent form, but Dustin May's struggles create significant vulnerability. The slight edge goes to San Diego based on the pitching matchup advantage and their desperate need to avoid a sweep at home.
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St. Louis Cardinals — Kokoonpano

PelaajaPos.AVGHRRBIOBPSLG
JJ Wetherholt
2B .235720.352.409
Victor Scott II
DH .18815.255.240
Alec Burleson
1B .267630.343.453
Jordan Walker
RF .3011027.380.566
Nolan Gorman
3B .225522.295.372
Masyn Winn
SS .258116.331.359
Nathan Church
CF .259517.298.438
Thomas Saggese
LF .15802.213.193
Yohel Pozo
C .11103.111.167

San Diego Padres — Kokoonpano

PelaajaPos.AVGHRRBIOBPSLG
Jackson Merrill
CF .224418.288.361
Fernando Tatis Jr.
RF .248015.317.298
Manny Machado
3B .197619.303.364
Gavin Sheets
DH .215513.263.439
Xander Bogaerts
SS .261723.338.428
Ramón Laureano
LF .221519.302.397
Ty France
1B .279411.313.574
Sung-Mun Song
2B .18202.250.273
Freddy Fermin
C .16703.269.227

Tulosvedot

4
Nathan Church doubles (5) on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Jordan Walker scores.
1-0
5
Ty France homers (4) on a fly ball to center field.
1-1
5
Fernando Tatis Jr. singles on a fly ball to right fielder Jordan Walker. Sung-Mun Song scores. Freddy Fermin scores.
1-3
8
Iván Herrera doubles (11) on a line drive to left fielder Ramón Laureano. JJ Wetherholt scores.
2-3
8
Manny Machado homers (6) on a line drive to left center field.
2-4

St. Louis Cardinals — Lyönti

PelaajaABRHRBIBBKHRAVGOPS
JJ Wetherholt2B
4110010.235.761
Victor Scott IIDH
0000000.188.495
Alec Burleson1B
4000010.267.796
Jordan WalkerRF
4110010.301.946
Nolan Gorman3B
3010120.225.667
Masyn WinnSS
4000020.258.690
Nathan ChurchCF
3021100.259.736
Thomas SaggeseLF
4000010.158.406
Yohel PozoC
1000010.111.278
Yhteensä342722120
BATTING
2B: Church (5, Vásquez, R); Herrera (11, Morejon).
TB: Church 3; Gorman; Herrera 3; Walker, J; Wetherholt.
RBI: Church (17); Herrera (18).
2-out RBI: Church.
Runners left in scoring position, 2 out: Burleson; Saggese; Walker, J; Wetherholt 2.
GIDP: Winn.
Team RISP: 1-for-10.
Team LOB: 8.
BASERUNNING
SB: Wetherholt (5, 2nd base off Vásquez, R/Fermin).
FIELDING
E: Winn (4, fielding).
PB: Pagés, P (2).
DP: (Wetherholt-Winn-Burleson).
a-Struck out for Pagés, P in the 8th.
1-Ran for Herrera in the 8th.

San Diego Padres — Lyönti

PelaajaABRHRBIBBKHRAVGOPS
Jackson MerrillCF
4000020.224.649
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
4012020.248.615
Manny Machado3B
4111021.197.667
Gavin SheetsDH
4000010.215.702
Xander BogaertsSS
4000010.261.766
Ramón LaureanoLF
2000110.221.699
Ty France1B
3111011.279.887
Sung-Mun Song2B
2100100.182.523
Freddy FerminC
3120000.167.496
Yhteensä304542102
BATTING
HR: France, T (4, 5th inning off May, 0 on, 1 out); Machado, M (6, 8th inning off Svanson, 0 on, 1 out).
TB: Fermin 2; France, T 4; Machado, M 4; Tatis Jr.
RBI: France, T (11); Machado, M (19); Tatis Jr. 2 (15).
2-out RBI: Tatis Jr. 2.
GIDP: France, T.
Team RISP: 1-for-3.
Team LOB: 4.
BASERUNNING
SB: Bogaerts (5, 2nd base off May/Pagés, P).
CS: France, T (1, 2nd base by Bruihl/Pagés, P).
FIELDING
DP: (Machado, M-Song-France, T).

St. Louis Cardinals — Syöttö

SyöttäjäIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERA
Dustin May(L, 3-4)
6.033227197-644.85
Justin Bruihl
1.010002015-105.00
Matt Svanson
1.011101116-129.61

San Diego Padres — Syöttö

SyöttäjäIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERA
Randy Vásquez(W, 4-1)
5.061106094-593.05
Jeremiah Estrada(H, 5)
1.000001015-84.22
Jason Adam(H, 7)
1.000000011-71.50
Adrian Morejon(H, 7)
0.211101014-85.66
Mason Miller(S, 12)
1.100024029-170.96

Ottelutiedot

Tuomarit: Home Plate: Jansen Visconti; First Base: Andy Fletcher; Second Base: Alex Tosi; Third Base: Cory Blaser
Stadion: Petco Park, San Diego
Sää: 68°F, Sunny
Tuuli: 7 mph, L To R

St. Louis Cardinals — Uutiset

San Diego Padres — Uutiset

Kausivertailu

Cardinals
STAT
Padres
31-28 Tulos 32-27
52.5% Win % 54.2%
.525 PCT .542
252 Juoksuja puolesta 229
266 Juoksuja vastaan 236
59 Pelatut pelit 59
L2 Putki L3
3-7 Viimeiset 10 3-7
15-16 Kotitulos 16-16
16-12 Vierastulos 16-11

Keskinaiset kohtaamiset

2
Viimeiset 3 kohtaamista
1
Tou 10
Cardinals 2 - 3 Padres
Tou 8
Cardinals 6 - 0 Padres
Tou 7
Cardinals 2 - 1 Padres

Cardinals Viimeaikaiset

Kes 2 vs Rangers 7-4 L
Kes 1 vs Rangers 2-1 L
Tou 31 vs Cubs 1-5 W
Tou 30 vs Cubs 6-1 L
Tou 29 vs Cubs 5-6 W

Padres Viimeaikaiset

Kes 2 @ Phillies 2-3 L
Tou 31 @ Nationals 2-4 L
Tou 30 @ Nationals 4-9 L
Tou 29 @ Nationals 7-5 W
Tou 27 vs Phillies 3-0 L

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