New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs — Mar 23, 2026 | AI Prediction & Stats

Expect a tightly-contested matchup that tilts late toward New York. Chicago sends steady left-hander Justin Steele to the hill; he’ll lean on a cutter/slider mix that traditionally mutes the Yankees’ left-handed power but can be vulnerable once the lineup turns over a second time. New York counters with right-hander Clarke Schmidt, elevated in the rotation after Luis Gil’s demotion. Schmidt’s heavy sinker should generate ground-ball outs against a Cubs club that has been chasing more often during its current three-game skid. Early on, the Yankees scratch out a first-inning run with Gleyber Torres working a walk and Juan Soto ripping a double into the right-field corner. Steele then settles, stranding two in the second, and Chicago responds in the third when Nico Hoerner’s hit-and-run single plates Ian Happ. Schmidt weathers that inning and finds rhythm through the middle frames, but Seiya Suzuki ambushes a first-pitch cutter in the sixth to knot the game at 2-2. Aaron Boone turns the ball over to a fresh bullpen—Tommy Kahnle, Luke Weaver, and Clay Holmes are all on regular rest—while David Ross must ride his middle-relief trio (Leiter Jr., Merryweather, Palencia) after Steele reaches the 90-pitch mark. The difference comes in the seventh: Leiter hangs a splitter, and Giancarlo Stanton demolishes it into the left-field bleachers for a two-run shot. Chicago manufactures a late run in the ninth—Cody Bellinger lines a double and scores on Christopher Morel’s single—but Holmes slams the door with a trademark 97-mph sinker to preserve a 4-3 Yankees victory. Key edges: • Bullpen depth favors New York, especially with Chicago’s high-leverage arms taxed over the past week. • The Yankees’ top-three bats (Soto, Judge, Stanton) have fared well vs. cutters and sliders, the bulk of Steele’s arsenal. • Chicago’s recent form (LLL) suggests offensive inconsistency; they’ve scored more than three runs just once in their past five games. Look for a spirited, low-scoring affair early, a decisive Yankee swing in the late innings, and New York’s bullpen carrying them the rest of the way.