Zpet na zapasy Nedele, Čen 28, 2026

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets — Čen 28, 2026 | AI předpověď a statistiky

Citi Field, Flushing
82°F, Partly Cloudy
4 mph, In From RF
W Kyle Backhus L Kodai Senga SV Jhoan Duran

Vysledkova tabule

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
Phillies 0 0 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 5 10 1
Mets 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 4 9 0

AI PREDIKCEPrognoza neuronove site

AI
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R
Phillies 1 0 2 0 1 1 0 1 0 6
Mets 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 3
Confidence: 62% Phillies favored
The series rubber match at Citi Field presents a stark pitching mismatch. Jesús Luzardo brings a legitimate ace profile — 10.72 K/9, 4.00 ERA, 92.1 innings of durability — against a Mets lineup still processing a managerial change after Carlos Mendoza's firing. Andy Green inherits a 35-48 club with a -44 run differential and a rotation in crisis. Cionel Pérez is not a traditional starter; his 4.99 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and 6.75 K/9 signal a back-end arm being stretched beyond his comfort zone. His recent outings have been short (21-32 pitches), suggesting he may not eclipse four innings before the bullpen is summoned. The Phillies lineup is anchored by Brandon Marsh (.319 AVG, 12 HR, 41 RBI), Trea Turner, and Bryce Harper's lineup protection that creates run-scoring opportunities throughout the order. Pérez's sinker-sweeper combo can generate weak contact, but his walk rate (3.52 BB/9) against a disciplined Philadelphia lineup is dangerous. The Mets' best offensive weapon remains Juan Soto (.294 AVG, 17 HR), who can single-handedly alter any game, but Luzardo's sweeper is tailor-made to challenge left-handed hitters. The Mets' bullpen is taxed — Clay Holmes and Dedniel Núñez both on 60-day IL, Reed Garrett also out. Newly recalled Zach Thornton and Daniel Duarte represent the relief depth available. Philadelphia's bullpen carries a structural edge here. The h2h history shows the Phillies have dominated this season series overall, going 4-1 in the last five meetings with a massive run differential edge. Luzardo on normal rest versus a short-workload Pérez tips this decisively toward Philadelphia.

Scoring Dynamics

Early (1-3) 3R Pérez struggles vs. PHI's potent lineup early
Middle (4-6) 4R Luzardo tires; Mets scratch vs. bullpen
Late (7-9) 2R Bullpen locks down; late PHI insurance run

Matchup Analysis

Mets

Juan Soto elite OBP threat
Home field at Citi Field
Won yesterday vs PHI
Pérez high ERA/WHIP concern
Depleted bullpen depth

Phillies

Luzardo elite strikeout stuff
Brandon Marsh hot bat .319
Deep potent lineup
Luzardo velocity slightly down
Adolis García still on IL

Risk Factors

Mets managerial change bounce-back energy
Luzardo velocity dip trend

Key Matchups

Juan Soto vs Jesús Luzardo pitcher Luzardo's sweeper neutralizes LHH; high K rate advantage
Brandon Marsh vs Cionel Pérez batter Marsh .319 avg; Pérez's 4.99 ERA vs. hot hitters is a liability
Trea Turner vs Cionel Pérez batter Turner's speed exploits Pérez's 3.52 BB/9 walk tendencies

Statistical Edges

First to Score Phillies 60%
Strikeouts 16 13-19
Total Runs 9 7-12

Game Preview

The afternoon sun hides behind overcast skies at Citi Field as Andy Green manages his first game as Mets interim skipper, hoping yesterday's 6-2 victory provided a spark. The optimism fades quickly as Jesús Luzardo carves through the bottom of the Mets order in the first before Philadelphia strikes in the top of the second. Trea Turner works a walk off the erratic Pérez, and Brandon Marsh drives him in with a sharp single to left, making it 1-0 Phillies. The game's critical moment arrives in the third. Pérez loses command, issuing back-to-back walks before Turner rips a two-run double into the left-center gap, extending the lead to 3-1. Pérez exits after four innings having thrown 75 pitches, leaving the overworked bullpen to face a rested Phillies lineup. Luzardo meanwhile is dealing — his sweeper buckles Mets hitters repeatedly, and he rolls through six innings allowing just two runs while punching out eight. The Mets claw back a run in the seventh when Soto connects for an RBI single off a Phillies reliever, but Philadelphia answers immediately in the eighth with Marsh plating another run to restore the three-run cushion. Green's squad simply can't generate enough sustained offense against Luzardo and the Phillies' deep bullpen. The Phillies take the rubber game 6-3, winning the series two games to one and reasserting their dominance over a Mets team still searching for answers.
Luzardo's significant advantage over Pérez in every pitching metric, combined with PHI's lineup depth and bullpen edge, creates a clear lean. Mets' managerial change adds uncertainty, slightly capping confidence.
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Philadelphia Phillies — Soupiska

HráčPoz.AVGHRRBIOBPSLG
Trea Turner
SS .232724.283.336
Kyle Schwarber
DH .2563054.371.591
Bryce Harper
1B .2761951.374.531
Alec Bohm
3B .225943.281.356
Brandon Marsh
LF .3211242.353.510
J.T. Realmuto
C .205524.283.328
Bryson Stott
2B .236740.297.391
Derek Hill
RF .241613.292.420
Justin Crawford
CF .243216.296.332

New York Mets — Soupiska

HráčPoz.AVGHRRBIOBPSLG
Carson Benge
RF .257932.318.393
Juan Soto
LF .3001739.406.567
Bo Bichette
SS .2541046.300.388
Ronny Mauricio
3B .19012.190.286
Francisco Alvarez
DH .249818.314.422
Jared Young
1B .233614.310.447
A.J. Ewing
CF .279419.359.422
Brett Baty
2B .210326.297.292
Luis Torrens
C .214115.272.300

Skórovací akce

3
Bryce Harper out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Tyrone Taylor. Trea Turner scores. Kyle Schwarber to 3rd.
1-0
3
Alec Bohm doubles (11) on a ground ball to left fielder Juan Soto. Kyle Schwarber scores.
2-0
3
Brandon Marsh singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Carson Benge. Alec Bohm scores.
3-0
5
Carson Benge singles on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Tyrone Taylor scores. Brett Baty to 3rd.
3-1
6
A.J. Ewing homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field. Francisco Alvarez scores.
3-3
6
Carson Benge grounds into a force out, pitcher Kyle Backhus to third baseman Alec Bohm to second baseman Bryson Stott. Brett Baty scores. Luis Torrens out at 2nd. Carson Benge to 1st.
3-4
7
Kyle Schwarber homers (30) on a fly ball to center field. Justin Crawford scores.
5-4

Philadelphia Phillies — Pálkování

HráčABRHRBIBBKHRAVGOPS
Trea TurnerSS
5110000.232.619
Kyle SchwarberDH
5222021.256.962
Bryce Harper1B
3001010.276.905
Alec Bohm3B
3121100.225.637
Brandon MarshLF
4021010.321.863
J.T. RealmutoC
4010020.205.611
Bryson Stott2B
4010020.236.688
Derek HillRF
4000010.241.712
Justin CrawfordCF
4110000.243.628
Celkem365105191
BATTING
2B: Bohm (11, Myers); Marsh (15, Senga).
HR: Schwarber (30, 7th inning off Senga, 1 on, 1 out).
TB: Bohm 3; Crawford; Marsh 3; Realmuto; Schwarber 5; Stott; Turner.
RBI: Bohm (43); Harper, B (51); Marsh (42); Schwarber 2 (54).
2-out RBI: Marsh; Bohm.
Runners left in scoring position, 2 out: Hill, D 3.
SF: Harper, B.
Team RISP: 2-for-6.
Team LOB: 6.
BASERUNNING
SB: Turner (16, 3rd base off Myers/Torrens); Schwarber (2, 2nd base off Myers/Torrens).
FIELDING
E: Alvarado (2, throw).

New York Mets — Pálkování

HráčABRHRBIBBKHRAVGOPS
Carson BengeRF
5012010.257.711
Juan SotoLF
2010300.300.973
Bo BichetteSS
4010120.254.688
Ronny Mauricio3B
2000010.190.476
Francisco AlvarezDH
5110030.249.736
Jared Young1B
2000010.233.757
A.J. EwingCF
3122001.279.781
Brett Baty2B
2100300.210.589
Luis TorrensC
4010100.214.572
Celkem364948101
BATTING
2B: Alvarez, F (6, Shugart).
HR: Ewing (4, 6th inning off Shugart, 1 on, 1 out).
TB: Alvarez, F 2; Benge; Bichette; Ewing 5; Soto, J; Taylor, T 2; Torrens.
RBI: Benge 2 (32); Ewing 2 (19).
Runners left in scoring position, 2 out: Baty 2; Benge; Wagaman 2; Alvarez, F 2; Bichette; Vientos.
Team RISP: 2-for-16.
Team LOB: 14.
a-Struck out for Vientos in the 6th.
b-Homered for Taylor, T in the 6th.

Philadelphia Phillies — Nadhazování

NadhazovačIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERA
Jesús Luzardo
5.041136096-623.88
Chase Shugart(BS, 1)
0.133311120-124.18
Kyle Backhus(W, 1-0)
0.21000008-56.00
José Alvarado(H, 9)
1.010002024-135.70
Orion Kerkering(H, 7)
1.000031027-112.76
Jhoan Duran(S, 21)
1.000010020-91.57

New York Mets — Nadhazování

NadhazovačIPHRERBBKHRPC-STERA
Cionel Pérez
1.00000209-94.83
Tobias Myers
3.063303059-486.21
Kodai Senga(L, 0-7)
5.042214180-549.09

Informace o zápase

Rozhodčí: Home Plate: Mike Muchlinski; First Base: Emil Jimenez; Second Base: Gabe Morales; Third Base: Doug Eddings
Stadion: Citi Field, Flushing
Počasí: 82°F, Partly Cloudy
Vítr: 4 mph, In From RF

New York Mets — Zpravy

Porovnani sezon

Phillies
STAT
Mets
46-37 Bilance 35-48
55.4% Win % 42.2%
.554 PCT .422
363 Ziskane body 335
362 Inkasovane body 379
83 Odehrane zapasy 83
L1 Série W1
6-4 Posledních 10 3-7
23-19 Bilance doma 19-23
23-18 Bilance venku 16-25

Vzajemne zapasy

3
Poslednich 5 setkani
2
Čen 27
Phillies 2 - 6 Mets
Čen 26
Phillies 2 - 1 Mets
Čen 21
Mets 2 - 6 Phillies
Čen 20
Mets 3 - 15 Phillies
Čen 18
Mets 6 - 4 Phillies

Phillies Nedavne

Čen 27 @ Mets 2-6 L
Čen 26 @ Mets 2-1 W
Čen 25 @ Nationals 10-5 W
Čen 24 @ Nationals 5-4 W
Čen 23 @ Nationals 14-9 W

Mets Nedavne

Čen 27 vs Phillies 2-6 W
Čen 26 vs Phillies 2-1 L
Čen 25 vs Cubs 4-3 L
Čen 24 vs Cubs 10-5 L
Čen 24 vs Cubs 10-3 L

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