St.Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals — Mrt 17, 2026 | AI Prediction & Stats

Washington counters a shaky overall season with its most reliable arm, left-hander MacKenzie Gore, who matches up well against a right-leaning St. Louis order that has slugged just .369 versus southpaws this spring. Gore’s improved fastball command (four walks in his last three starts) should keep the Cardinals from putting up crooked numbers early. Opposite him is veteran Miles Mikolas, whose pitch-to-contact style has been punished by Washington’s top-of-the-order speed; CJ Abrams and James Wood have combined for seven hits and five steals in their last two meetings with Mikolas and are primed to pressure the defense again. The game tilts in the middle innings. In the fifth, the Nationals are projected to string together a pair of opposite-field doubles from Wood and Joey Meneses, capitalizing on Mikolas’s tendency to miss up and arm-side the third time through the lineup. St. Louis answers when Nolan Gorman ambushes a first-pitch curve for a solo shot in the fourth and Lars Nootbaar plates Paul Goldschmidt with a gapper in the fifth, but bullpen depth favors Washington: hard-throwing Hunter Harvey and setup man Jordan Weems have held hitters to a combined .182 average over their last 12 appearances and should lock down the late frames. Expect Washington to scratch out an eighth-inning run on a Lane Thomas sacrifice fly after Abrams legs out an infield single and swipes second. In the ninth, Meneses adds insurance with a flare to right, exploiting St. Louis’s thin middle relief once Giovanny Gallegos is unavailable on back-to-back outings. The Cardinals’ late push stalls when Kyle Finnegan induces a 6-4-3 double play from Goldschmidt to seal a tight 5-4 Nationals victory, snapping St. Louis’s brief two-game win streak and continuing Washington’s recent head-to-head edge.