St.Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets — Mar 10, 2026 | AI Prediction & Stats

Kodai Senga gets the ball for the Mets and matches up against veteran Miles Mikolas. Senga’s late-moving splitter has been sharp all spring (15 K, 2 BB in 9 exhibition innings), and the Cardinals’ right-leaning lineup historically struggles with elite splitters. Mikolas pounds the zone but has been homer-prone (1.3 HR/9 last season), a dangerous recipe in Citi Field against the Alonso–Alvarez middle of the order. The Mets strike first: Brandon Nimmo works a leadoff walk in the 1st, steals second, and scores on Pete Alonso’s sharp single, 1-0. Senga cruises through two scoreless frames before yielding a solo shot to Nolan Gorman in the 3rd, tying the game. New York reclaims the lead in the 4th when Jeff McNeil slaps a Mikolas cutter into the right-field corner, plating Francisco Alvarez from second. Mikolas settles in, but a rising pitch count forces St. Louis to the bullpen in the 7th. That’s the turning point: hard-throwing but erratic left-hander Zack Thompson issues back-to-back walks, and Starling Marte punishes a 2-1 heater into the left-field gap for a two-run double, stretching the margin to 4-2. Senga exits after six strong innings (6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 8 K). The Mets’ rested back-end trio—Brooks Raley, Adam Ottavino, and Edwin Díaz—take over. Díaz flashes triple-digit velocity, but an infield misplay in the 8th allows Tommy Edman to scratch across an unearned run, briefly narrowing it to 4-3. In the bottom half, Francisco Lindor ambushes a first-pitch sinker from Andrew Kittredge, ripping an insurance RBI single, 5-3. Díaz slams the door in the 9th, striking out the side and stranding Paul Goldschmidt on deck. New York’s superior bullpen depth and the heart of its lineup make the difference, while St. Louis’ ongoing run-prevention issues—reflected in a −63 differential last season—surface again. Expect the Mets to ride this win to keep pressure on the division-leading Phillies, while the Cardinals continue searching for consistency away from Busch Stadium.